TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 10, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 10.10.2017

Price is currently retracing some of the recent swing lower. The AUDUSD is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low and horizontal support at 0.7790, around the longer-term moving average and around the bearish channel resistance area. A swing to the downside could stall or reverse around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 10.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the 50.0% Fib level. The EURGBP is currently attempting a swing higher. The moving averages are starting to tighten, suggesting that that upside momentum may be weakening. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the longer-term moving average. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8985.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK Manufacturing Production figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 10.10.2017

The EURUSD has been finding resistance around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to range between the recent lows at 1.1685 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1780. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1830.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 10.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average but has since been bullish and has closed above the moving average. Price is clearly down-trending. The GBPUSD is currently in a strong retrace phase. The moving averages are moving sideways, suggesting that price could become indecisive and could struggle to swing lower. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3285, 1.3230 and 1.3030.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK Manufacturing Production figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 10.10.2017

Price has been moving off the tight horizontal channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is moving sideways within the horizontal channel at 0.7055-0.7095. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the NZDUSD could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 10.10.2017

The USDCAD continues to retrace some the recent bullish move. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways, suggesting that price could become indecisive or break to the downside of the bullish channel. The USDCAD could start moving sideways and range between the horizontal support at 1.2450 and the recent high at 1.2595. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 10.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has found support around the longer-term moving average and bullish channel support area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that the USDCHF may fail to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the channel support area and around the moving averages. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9830 and around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 10.10.2017

Price continues to be indecisive. The USDJPY is ranging between the clear horizontal support area at 112.25 and the recent high at 113.40. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight, moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 111.50 and 111.20.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 10.10.2017

GOLD is looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1291.50, 1289.60, 1280.90 and 1261.00. If GOLD closes above the horizontal level at 1291.50, price may start up-trending.