Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 09-13.10.2017


EUR/USD

After the release of mixed data on the labor market in the US, EUR/USD showed a rather sharp price growth. It should be noted that the movement was supported by large volume, and a new level of support 1.1680-1.1999 was created, in which fairly significant volume is concentrated.

volume euro tfxi

Given that there is a downward trend, and that a large accumulation of volume is concentrated at the top of the chart, it is still worth giving preference to short positions on the euro. We can open sales after a sure breakdown of  the support on higher volume. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the fall is 90-100 points.

sell euro tfxi

GBP/USD

The pound reacted more calmly to the “payrolls” last Friday, and the price remained trading below the resistance level 1.3124 – 1.3145. Also worth noting is the second resistance of 1.3184 – 1.3204, which also remains relevant.

volume gbp tfxi

Thus, GBP/USD pair trading scenario remains the same: short positions after a small upward correction in order to obtain a more advantageous entry point. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level of 1.3124 – 1.3145. The potential of the fall is 120 points.

sell gbp tfxi

USD/JPY

USD/JPY first broke the previous local maximum, after which the price plummeted. The fall of the price was on large volume. In addition, it is worth noting the formation of a new volume resistance level of 113.20 – 113.42, after which the price began falling.

volume jpy tfxi

Thus, now the pair is in the consolidation, in addition, on the one hand, it is unreasonable to open purchases after such a sharp fall, but on the other hand, it is not advisable to open sales against such a strong uptrend.
Therefore, the best solution is to wait for the price to come out of the consolidation. Movement should be sharp and on increased volume.

trade jpy tfxi

USD/CAD

For this pair it is necessary to allocate a new level of resistance 1.2566 – 1.2580, which was formed after the news on the labor market in the United States. Nevertheless, the price did not show a significant fall and is trading near this mark now.

volume cad tfxi

And given the presence of a strong local uptrend, it is worth giving preference to long positions. Purchases should be opened after the breakdown of the resistance level. Breakdown movement should be on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 100-110 points.

buy cad tfxi

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar also corrected on Friday, however, the price increase was insignificant. Also it is worth noting the new level of support 0.7744, in which fairly large volume is concentrated.

volume aud tfxi

Therefore, it is necessary to open short positions only after a sure and sharp breakdown of this mark on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the volume breakout bar. Potential of the fall is 60-70 points.

sell aud tfxi

XAU/USD

Gold showed rapid growth after the release of the “payrolls” and the price returned trading back into the consolidation. The movement was on large volume, and a new support level of 1261.10 – 1262.80 was formed, in which significant volume is concentrated.

volume gold tfxi

Thus, on the one hand there is a strong and sharp price growth, on the other – a local downtrend and the consolidation. Given these factors, the best solution will be to stay out of the market, until the price breaks through the consolidation boundary. The breakout movement must be sharp and on large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market.

trade gold tfxi

The sentiment: this indicator confirms all of our trading scenarios. Only on the Canadian dollar, the mood of the market contradicts our trading plan, however, before the breakdown of the previous resistance, it is better not to open sales.

sentiment

The bottom line: after the release of the payrolls the market corrected and new volume levels were created which can be used it trading. So wait for a good entry point from them and open new positions. The Euro and the Pound are in priority.