TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 05, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 05.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area at 0.7870 and continues to move within the horizontal channel (0.7790-0.7870). The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the AUDUSD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 0.7915.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a FOMC Speech at 1310 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 05.10.2017

The EURGBP continues to be bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.8850. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8890 and 0.8900.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 05.10.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are also moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. The EURUSD is ranging between the recent lows at 1.1705 and the recent swing high at 1.1830. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURUSD breaks to the upside, price may be rejected or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.1870.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a FOMC Speech at 1310 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 05.10.2017

The GBPUSD is also looking indecisive. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1.3230-1.3285. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady and price is still moving within a bearish channel, all suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3360.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a FOMC Speech at 1310 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 05.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the range support area. The NZDUSD is looking a little choppy and indecisive. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.7150 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7240. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price may become bearish.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a FOMC Speech at 1310 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 05.10.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 1.2415-1.2540. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian Trade Balance figure will be released at the same time. This is  followed by a FOMC Speech at 1310 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 05.10.2017

Just like most other USD pairs, the USDCHF is looking choppy and indecisive. Once again, the moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the USDCHF has been steadily up-trending within the channel. Opportunities to go long could exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9670 and 0.9655. A move to the upside may be rejected or bounce around the recent swing high at 0.9780 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a FOMC Speech at 1310 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 05.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the horizontal channel support area. Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 112.25-113.20. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDJPY could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 111.50 and 111.20. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a FOMC Speech at 1310 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 05.10.2017

GOLD moved above the tight range area but price lacked momentum to form a significant bullish move. Price has been down-trending but is now lacking trend direction and momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1268.60, 1289.60 and 1291.50. If GOLD moves below the horizontal support at 1268.60, price may attempt a bearish move lower.