TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 04, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 04.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed bullish and is retracing some of the recent bearish move. As also suggested, the AUDUSD has stalled around the identified horizontal resistance at 0.7865. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.7790-0.7865. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the AUDUSD may be rejected or reverse around the previous swing low at 0.7915.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a Fed Speech at 1915 UTC.  Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 04.10.2017

Price reversed around the bullish channel support area and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8860, around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8890 and 0.8900.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

UK Services PMI will be announced at 0830 UTC today. The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1715 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 04.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has failed to swing strongly lower and has been bullish. Price has been down-trending and is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The EURUSD is also ranging between the recent lows at 1.1705 and the most recent swing high at 1.1830. The moving averages confirm the slight indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Long opportunities may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a Fed Speech at 1915 UTC.  The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1715 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 04.10.2017

The GBPUSD has reversed around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3360. A move to the downside could stall or reverse around the channel support area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

UK Services PMI will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a Fed Speech at 1915 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 04.10.2017

Price has reversed the recent bearish move and has re-entered the consolidation area. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The NZDUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7150 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7240. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a Fed Speech at 1915 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 04.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed bearish. The USDCAD has moved below the bullish channel support area and is now moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2415-1.2540. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out). Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a Fed Speech at 1915 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 04.10.2017

The USDCHF has moved strongly off the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to move within a bullish channel and continues to be slightly choppy and indecisive. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9670 and 0.9655. A bullish move may be rejected or bounce off the recent swing high at 0.9780 and the channel resistance area. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction – confirming the market indecision.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a Fed Speech at 1915 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 04.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the range resistance area. Price is still ranging between the horizontal support at 112.25 and the recent highs at 113.20 and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDJPY could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 111.50 and 111.20.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a Fed Speech at 1915 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 04.10.2017

GOLD has moved out of the bearish consolidation area and has since been slightly bullish. Price has been clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are now moving sideways though, suggesting that GOLD may become indecisive or attempt a bullish move. Trading opportunities could exist around the potential horizontal channel support and resistance areas (1268.60-1276.45) and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the previous consolidation resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1289.60 and 1291.50.