Daily Technical Forex Forecast 03.10.2017


EUR/USD

The local downtrend for the Euro continues as the price broke down the lower boundary of the previous local consolidation. The fall was quite abrupt, but unfortunately it was on small volume, so we can’t point out any fresh volume level. It leads to the absence of the place for a stop loss. That’s why we need to wait for the appearance of increased/large volume and creation of a new level, that can be used as a reliable place for a stop loss. Only after that we can consider opening short positions.

volume euro

While the pair is trading on small volume it is too risky to enter the market.

GBP/USD

The Pound also fell down and broke down the previous local consolidation. Despite the confident downward move, which is a good bearish signal, volume on the market is low, so we can’t highlight any new volume level or zone. It makes trading the Pound more difficult as there is no a good place for a stop loss.

volume gbp

That’s why we need to wait for the appearance of large volume on the market and a creation of a new volume level, that can be used in trading as a reliable place for a stop loss.

While volume on the market is low, we should skip this currency pair from our trading plan.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading in a small local consolidation under the resistance level of 113.20 now. It is worth noting that large volume is concentrated in this range, so the breakdown of this consolidation will be an excellent signal for entering the market. Considering the presence of a strong uptrend and the fact that the price is testing the resistance once again, it is worth giving preference to the breakdown scenario at level 113.20, which will be a good sign for continuation of the uptrend.

The breakdown movement must be sharp and on increased volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entry and will significantly reduce the probability of a false breakdown. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is 120 points.

buy jpy tfxi

USD/CAD

USD/CAD showed a pretty confident growth yesterday, so the local uptrend for this currency pair continues. The move was on small volume, so we can’t point out any new volume level. The support 1.2404 – 1.2428 is far away from the current price. So that we can’t open long positions at the moment, because there is no good place for a stop loss.

It is necessary to wait for the smooth downward correction and a resumption of the growth on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed below the beginning of the sharp upward move. A potential of the deal is around 100 pips.

buy cad

AUD/USD

The price is still trading in the consolidation, so that our previous scenario remains the same: we can enter the market only after a confident breakout of the range. The move should be supported by increased/large volume, it will be a more accurate signal for opening new deals.

volume aud

Until the pair is trading in this local consolidation, we should stay out of the market.

XAU/USD

The price fell down yesterday, but the move was on small volume, so there was no good place for entering the market. Moreover, we can’t point out concrete volume level, so it makes trading gold a pretty tough task. Anyway, given the confident fall of the price we should give preference to short positions.

volume gold

We can enter the market after the appearance of a strong bearish momentum which is supported by large volume. A stop loss should be place above the beginning of the fall. A potential of the deal is 120-130 pips.

sell gold

The sentiment: all our scenarios, except USD/CAD, are confirmed by this indicator, which is a positive additional sign.

sentiment

The bottom line: USD/JPY is in priority. For all other instruments we need to wait for the appearance of large volume on the market and only after that we can consider opening new deals.