TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 02, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 02.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found support around the previous trend resistance area and has continued to be bearish. The AUDUSD is now moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7810-0.7865. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the AUDUSD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the previous swing low at 0.7915. If the AUDUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US ISM Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce rates at 0330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 02.10.2017

Price has moved above the recent range resistance area. The EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive though. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is moving within a tight bullish channel that is within a longer-term bearish channel. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of both channels. The EURGBP could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8745, 0.8760, 0.8890 and 0.8900.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

UK Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 0830 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 02.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level. Price has since been bearish and is heading towards the recent lows at 1.1720. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that there may not be enough selling momentum to form a lower swing low. Buying opportunities could exist around the recent lows at 1.1720. A bullish move may bounce or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1830 and 1.1870.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US ISM Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 02.10.2017

The GBPUSD is indecisive. Price recently found support around the previous trend resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) but the GBPUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3355 and the recent swing high at 1.3450. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the GBPUSD breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the previous trend resistance area. If the GBPUSD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3475 and 1.3595.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

UK Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 0830 UTC. A US ISM Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 02.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area and continues to be indecisive. The NZDUSD continues to move sideways and within the horizontal channel at 0.7175-0.7240. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the NZDUSD breaks to the downside, price may attempt a bearish move much lower.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US ISM Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 02.10.2017

Price reversed bullish around the longer-term moving average, the previous horizontal resistance and the bullish channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are starting to tighten and and moving sideways, signalling that the USDCAD may struggle to reach the channel resistance area and may become bearish. Price is also looking a little over-extended, confirming the analysis. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal resistance at 1.2510 and if the USDCAD closes below the channel support area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2410 and 1.2320.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US ISM Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 02.10.2017

The USDCHF is still consolidating between the horizontal support at 0.9655 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9760. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9575. There is a chance that the bullish channel may hold and that price may start trending higher.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US ISM Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 02.10.2017

Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY is consolidating – price is moving sideways and looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways also – confirming the market indecision. The USDJPY is moving within a horizontal channel at 112.25-113.20. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 111.20 and 111.50.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US ISM Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 02.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the previous horizontal support area at 1289.55 and has formed a swing lower. GOLD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the identified trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1289.55 and 1291.50. GOLD may continue to find support around the trend support area.