TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 20, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 20.09.2017

Price has become indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7950-0.8030. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). There is a possibility that price may form a slightly wider horizontal channel at 0.7950-0.8045.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC will release their Economic Projections at 1800 UTC and also announce Rates. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1830 UTC. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will give a speech at 0510 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 20.09.2017

The EURGBP has continued to retrace and be bullish. Price is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish, all suggesting that the down-trend could be over. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the recent low and horizontal support at 0.8780. A bullish move could bounce or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8990 and 0.9040.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK Retail Sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 20.09.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved above the horizontal resistance at 1.1990. As also suggested, the EURUSD has been finding support around the bullish channel support area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1990 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the recent highs at 1.2080.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC will release their Economic Projections at 1800 UTC and also announce Rates. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 20.09.2017

Price has become indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3475 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3540. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The longer-term moving average is still bullish, suggesting that price could attempt to swing higher. If the GBPUSD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the recent high at 1.3595. If the GBPUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3320.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK Retail Sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC. FOMC will release their Economic Projections at 1800 UTC and also announce Rates. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 20.09.2017

The NZDUSD is attempting a bullish move out of the recent consolidation area. If price closes above the consolidation resistance area, the NZDUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and price action has formed a possible bullish channel – confirming the current buying momentum. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous consolidation resistance area at 0.7330, around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The NZDUSD could bounce or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC will release their Economic Projections at 1800 UTC and also announce Rates. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1830 UTC. A New Zealand GDP figure will be released at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 20.09.2017

Just like many USD pairs, the USDCAD is currently indecisive and is moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2260-1.2310. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may move higher. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.2340. A break to the down-side of the horizontal channel may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2215 and 1.2135.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC will release their Economic Projections at 1800 UTC and also announce Rates. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 20.09.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and range between the recent lows at 0.9440 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9760 (please see daily chart). The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a slightly tighter range at 0.9440-0.9680. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both ranges and if the USDCHF moves out of either range (break-out trades). Price may also reverse around the recently formed horizontal support at 0.9575. Trading opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support and resistance areas.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC will release their Economic Projections at 1800 UTC and also announce Rates. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1830 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 20.09.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price did not manage to swing higher though. The USDJPY is ranging between the recent highs at 111.80 and the horizontal support at 111.20. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDJPY could break to the upside. If price breaks to the downside, the USDJPY may find support around the longer-term moving average, around the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 110.75 and 109.90.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Crude Oil Inventories is at 1430 UTC today. FOMC will release their Economic Projections at 1800 UTC and also announce Rates. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1830 UTC. The Bank of Japan will announce Rates early tomorrow morning (UTC). The Rate announcement is followed by a Press Conference at 0630 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 20.09.2017

GOLD  is down-trending. Price is currently retracing some of the most recent bearish swing. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that GOLD could attempt a swing lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1318.10 and 1319.90. Price may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1305.50.