TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 19, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – price is currently down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and the AUDUSD is moving within a bearish channel, all suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8030 and 0.8045. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.7940.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price may attempt a swing lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around any of the key Fib levels. A move to the downside may stall or reverse around the recent swing low and horizontal support at 0.8780.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and is range between the horizontal support at 1.1870 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1990. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the range. If price breaks to the downside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.1835. If price breaks to the upside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.2080. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages have become bullish, suggesting that price could move higher.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price started retracing some of the recent bullish swing. As also suggested, the GBPUSD has been finding support around the previous bullish channel resistance area (as support). Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are very bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous bullish channel resistance area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3320 and 1.3160. A bullish move could bounce or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3595.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction – confirming the current indecision. The NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7175, 0.7195 and 0.7330. If price moves above the consolidation resistance at 0.7330, the NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move higher.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been very bullish. As also suggested, price has been rejected around the previous horizontal support at 1.2340. The bullish moving averages are starting to widen, suggesting that the USDCAD may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous support and resistance levels of the horizontal channel (1.2215 and 1.2135) and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2340 and 1.2420.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and range between the recent lows at 0.9440 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9760 (please see daily chart). The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a slightly tighter range at 0.9440-0.9680. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both ranges and if the USDCHF moves out of either range (break-out trades). Price may also reverse around the recently formed horizontal support at 0.9575.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has started up-trending and is closing higher. If the USDJPY starts retracing, long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.75 and 109.90. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the buying momentum may continue.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening again, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous range support area at 1318.50-1320.00. A swing lower may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1301.75.
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