TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 18, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 18.09.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price moved above the tight range resistance area and has since been trending higher. The AUDUSD is now ranging within a larger horizontal channel at 0.7970-0.8045. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price action has also formed a bullish channel. The AUDUSD may reverse around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 18.09.2017

Price has continued to be bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are still bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum continues to be strong. The EURGBP is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that price could start retracing. Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

The Governor (Carney) of the Bank of England (BoE) will speak at 1500 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 18.09.2017

The EURUSD has become indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1870 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1990. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range. If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.1835. If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.2080.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair during today’s trading sessions.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 18.09.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are very bullish, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that the GBPUSD may start retracing. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel resistance area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3320 and 1.3160.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

The Governor (Carney) of the Bank of England (BoE) will speak at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 18.09.2017

Price has been rejected around the consolidation resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction – confirming the current indecision. The NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7175, 0.7195 and 0.7330. If price moves above the consolidation resistance at 0.7330, the NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair during today’s trading sessions.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 18.09.2017

Just like the NZDUSD, the USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a clear horizontal channel at 1.2135-1.2215. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCAD may bounce or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.2340. If price breaks to the downside, the USDCAD may bounce or reverse around the recent lows at 1.2065.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair during today’s trading sessions.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 18.09.2017

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and range between the recent lows at 0.9440 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9760 (please see daily chart). The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a slightly tighter range at 0.9440-0.9680. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both ranges and if the USDCHF moves out of either range (break-out trades).

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair during today’s trading sessions.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 18.09.2017

The moving averages are bullish and steady and price is moving above the recent horizontal resistance area, all suggesting that the USDJPY could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 110.75, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 109.90.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair during today’s trading sessions.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 18.09.2017

GOLD has moved below the range support area but is currently quiet. The moving averages are slightly bearish, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous range support area at 1319.85, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 1334.50. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1301.75.