Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 18-22.09.2017


EUR/USD

EUR/USD broke the previous resistance and is trading just above this level now. Unfortunately, the price growth was on small volume, so it is impossible to point out any new volume levels or zones.

volume euro tfxi

Therefore, it is worth waiting for the appearance of large volume and look at the reaction of the price on it, which will indicate to us the most likely price movement + it will be possible to put a stop loss above/below the beginning of the volume movement.
For now, unfortunately, the situation for the euro is not quite clear, as volume on the market is rather small and the price is in the local consolidation.

GBP/USD

The upward trend for the pound continued, as the price growth sharply and on large volume, which is an excellent bullish signal. Also it is worth noting a small local consolidation at the top of the chart, in which large volume is concentrated.

volume gbp tfxi

Breakdown of this consolidation and continuation of the growth will be an excellent signal for opening long positions for GBP/USD. A stop loss should be placed under this consolidation. The growth potential is more than 100 points.

buy gbp tfxi

There is also a possibility of price’s correction from this consolidation. In this case, it is worthwhile to open long positions after a stoppage of the correction and a resumption of the growth on increased volume.

USD/JPY

The price tested a local maximum/resistance level of 110.92, but could not finally break it out. Now the price is slightly lower than this mark, and given the rapid growth of the pair over the past week, it is worth considering the scenario of the final breakdown of this level as the most probable.

volume jpy tfxi

We can open long positions after a sharp breakout of this level and a fixation of the price above it. The breakout movement must be on increased/large volume, which will be a more accurate signal. A stop loss should be placed under the volume breakout bar. The potential of the deal is about 120 points.

buy jpy tfxi

USD/CAD

USD/CAD continued trading in the consolidation. It is worth noting that very large volume is concentrated in this range, which can be regarded as the accumulation or unloading of large players.

volume cad tfxi

To be able to  determine more accurately what is happening on the market, we need to wait for a sharp price exit from the consolidation on large volume. Of course, given the strong downtrend, preference should be given to short positions.
While the price is trading in this range, it’s worth to be out of the market.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar also is trading in the consolidation, where large volume is concentrated, and therefore the trading scenario is similar: new deals should be considered only after a sharp breakdown of the consolidation boundaries on large volume.
volume aud tfxi
Given the global uptrend, preference should be given to purchases. Nevertheless, before the price comes out of the consolidation, this currency pair is not advised for trading.

XAU/USD

After the rapid growth on large volume, gold again adjusted down and now the price is in local consolidation. It is worth noting that the downward movement was on average volume, which does not make it possible to consider short positions from the current level.
volume gold tfxi
Thus, we should wait for the price to come out of the consolidation. The movement should be on large volume. Of course, given the uptrend, long positions look more promising.
Nevertheless, it is worthwhile to trade this instrument only after a confident exit of the price and range on large volume.

The sentiment: this indicator confirms our scenarios for the pound and the yen. For the euro, the Australian dollar and gold, purchases should be in priority, while for USD / CAD – sales.

sentiment

The bottom line: there are 2 interesting scenarios on the market right now: GBP/USD and USD/JPY. For all other instrument we need to wait for additional signals or for breakouts of boundaries of consolidations.