TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 15, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 15.09.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding resistance around the previous horizontal support at 0.8015 and the shorter-term moving average. Even though price has been finding resistance the AUDUSD is moving sideways and has formed a horizontal channel at 0.7970-0.8010. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the AUDUSD could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the horizontal resistance at 0.8045 and around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Retail Sales is at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 15.09.2017

The EURGBP moved below the range support area and has since been very bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the the horizontal levels at 0.8990 and 0.9040. The EURGBP is nearing a previous horizontal resistance at 0.8845 (daily chart). Price may stall or reverse around this area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 15.09.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected around the identified support levels and is currently retracing. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the EURUSD could continue to downtrend. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous swing low at 1.1930, around the trend resistance area and around the bearish moving averages. A move to the downside could bounce or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1870 and 1.1835.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

US Retail Sales is at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 15.09.2017

Price has swung higher and continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. If the GBPUSD starts to retrace, opportunities to go long may exist around the previous swing high at 1.3320, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Retail Sales is at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 15.09.2017

The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear direction – confirming the current indecision. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities. Price may reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7195, 0.7310 and 0.7335.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Retail Sales is at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 15.09.2017

Price has become slightly indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Just like NZDUSD, USDCAD has very few technical areas that may provide trading opportunities. Trading opportunities could exist around the dynamic support and resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2065, 1.2215 and 1.2340.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Retail Sales is at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 15.09.2017

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and range between the recent lows at 0.9440 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9760 (please see daily chart). The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a slightly tighter range at 0.9440-0.9680. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both ranges and if the USDCHF moves out of either range (break-out trades).

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US Retail Sales is at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 15.09.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY was rejected and reversed around the horizontal channel resistance at 110.90. Price continues to be indecisive and move within the large horizontal channel at 107.40-110.90 (see 4 hour chart). The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Retail Sales is at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 15.09.2017

Price is ranging between the recent low at 1319.85 and the horizontal resistance at 1334.50. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, GOLD may stall or reverse around the recent high at 1355.20. If price breaks to the downside, GOLD could stall or reverse around the previous swing low at 1301.75.