TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 13, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD continues to find support around the trend support area. As also suggested, price is struggling to form a swing higher. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the AUDUSD may move below the trend support area. Price is ranging between a tight horizontal support and resistance at 0.8010-0.8045. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the AUDUSD moves below the trend support area and breaks to the downside of the range, price could attempt a bearish move lower.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. If the EURGBP starts retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel support and resistance areas and around the previous horizontal support at 0.9135.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been slightly bullish but is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. The EURUSD may form a horizontal channel at 1.1925-1.2080. Trading opportunities could exist around the potential horizontal channel support and resistance areas. If price moves below the horizontal support at 1.1925, the EURUSD may start trending lower.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has continued to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3215 and 1.3160. A bullish move may bounce or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD continues to look very choppy and be indecisive. The moving averages have been bullish for a while though, signalling that price could move higher. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7225, 0.7310 and 0.7335 and around the diagonal support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved above the recent sideways consolidation area. Price action has now formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are crossing bullish, suggesting that the USDCAD may start retracing some of the recent bearish swing. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the moving averages and if price closes above the channel resistance area. The USDCAD could reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2340 and 1.2425.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has continued to be bullish but is clearly indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.9440 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9695. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range. The USDCHF may find support around the previous diagonal resistance area and around the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bullish and has moved higher. Price looks a little indecisive but the USDJPY is above the moving averages and previous resistance levels – suggesting that price may start up-trending. If the USDJPY starts retracing, opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 110.65.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US PPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1323.70-1355.05. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
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