TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 12, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be bearish and retrace but is currently finding support around the identified trend support area. The bullish moving averages are starting to tighten, suggesting that the AUDUSD may struggle to form a swing higher – the uptrend may be over. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and if price moves below the trend support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the bearish channel support area and has since been moving lower. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous bearish channel, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 0.9135.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like the AUDUSD, the EURUSD has continued to retrace and is currently finding support around the identified trend support area. The moving averages are tightening and becoming more bearish, suggesting that price may become indecisive or move lower. Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1945. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and if the EURUSD closes below the trend support area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD is retracing. Recent price action has been very bullish – price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the GBPUSD may continue to uptrend. If price continues to retrace, buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous resistance levels at 1.3075 and 1.2975.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the previous symmetrical triangle resistance area. The NZDUSD continues to be very indecisive though and is lacking clear market direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified support and resistance areas and around the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has become indecisive and is currently moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2060-1.2160. The moving averages are tightening and are beginning to move sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The longer-term moving average is still bearish. Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and the identified trend resistance area.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has been bullish and has moved above the moving averages and the trend resistance area. Price now looks indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The USDCHF is ranging between the recent lows at 0.9440 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9695. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range. Price may find support around the previous diagonal resistance area and around the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY has moved higher and is above the moving averages and recent trend resistance area. Price looks a little indecisive but price action suggests that the USDJPY may move higher – price is above recent swing highs and is forming a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern and the moving averages are becoming bullish. If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bearish and is moving lower. The moving averages are about to cross bearish, signalling that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1329.25 and 1332.75 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
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