The market was very calm on Monday, so the price did not show any sharp moves and was trading in the local consolidation near the fresh volume resistance level 1.1906 – 1.1921.
As can be seen from the chart, volume on the market was very low, so that our previous scenario remains the same – we need to wait for the strong reaction of the price on the level of resistance and after that we can consider opening any new deals for this currency pair.
While the price is trading in the local range, we should stay out of the market.
The price fell down yesterday, but volume on the market was very low, so we should not take into account that move. Overall, the pound is still locked between two volume levels: the support 1.2865 – 1.2886 and the resistance 1.2973 – 1.2990.
That’s why we are able to trade this instrument only after confident breakout of one of these levels. After the fixation of the price below/above any of the level, we can enter the market. Until the pair is trading inside the range, we should stay out of the market.
The pair has broken out the support level and now is trading below it. Unfortunately, the price fall was on average volume, so that we can open short positions only after the appearance of additional signal. Such a signal is a strong bearish momentum on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level 109.94. The target is 108.46.
The price is trading in the local range a little bit above the level of support 1.2356, where large volume is concentrated. Given the global downtrend and the sharp fall of the price last week, we should consider short positions after the sure breakdown of the support. The move should be supported by large volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the fall is more than 100 pips.
The Australian dollar is trading in the local consolidation below the resistance/local maximum 0.7976 – 0.7992, where large volume is concentrated, so that, our previous scenario remains the same: open long positions after the confident breakout of this level. The move should be on increased/large volume. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume level. A potential of the deal is 70 pips.
After a sharp and abrupt growth of the price on Friday, the market opened with a upward gap on Monday and is trading in a small consolidation just above the previous resistance level now. It should be noted that the volume on the market was very small, so it’s hard to single out any new volume level.
Nevertheless, the breakout of the resistance and the presence of a strong uptrend are excellent bull signals, thus, long positions are in priority.
We can open purchases after the price growth on increased/large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for the entrance + will give us an excellent place for a stop loss, which can be placed just below the beginning of a sharp growth. The deal’s potential is more than 140 points.
The sentiment: our scenarios for USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and XAU/USD are confirmed by the mood of the market. For EUR/USD and GBP/USD situations are tough, as these pairs are trading in ranges.
The bottom line: we need to wait for breakouts of volume levels and then we can consider opening new deals.