Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 04-08.09.2017


EUR/USD

After the release of the data on the labor market in the USA, EUR/USD showed a rapid fall of the price on large volume. Also it is worth noting the formation of a new volume resistance level 1.1906 – 1.1921.

volume euro tfxi

This level is the cornerstone for the euro trading:
If the price confidently breaks this mark on large volume, this will be a signal for the continuation of the global uptrend for the euro. In this case, it is worthwhile to open long positions with a stop loss placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 120 points.
If the price tests this mark and continues falling sharply, it is worth considering the option of opening short positions. A stop loss should be placed a little above the resistance level. The potential of the deal is about 120-130 points.

trade euro

GBP/USD

The pound sterling showed a rapid growth of the price on increased volume after the release of the payrolls, but could not finally breakout the local maximum. A new resistance level of 1.2973 – 1.2990 was created, in which very large volume is concentrated. The support level is also below 1.2865 – 1.2886. Thus, the price is closed between two volume levels.

volume gbp tfxi

Therefore, we can trade this currency pair only after the price leaves the consolidation. The output of the price should be sharp and on large volume, such a breakdown would be a more accurate signal for entry.
While the price is trading in the consolidation, it is better to stay out of the market.

USD/JPY

On Friday, USD/JPY formed 2 volume levels: support 109.60 – 109.79 and resistance 110.35. Thus, the price is now in the consolidation between these two levels.
Therefore, the trading scenario for this instrument is quite simple: we expect a sure breakdown of the consolidation boundaries and then opens new deals. The breakout movement must be on large volume to avoid false movements.

volume jpy tfxi

USD/CAD

USD/CAD continued its downward movement on large volume, thus, the global downtrend continues. It is also worth noting a new level of support 1.2356, in which a large volume is concentrated, which stopped the fall.

volume cad tfxi

Therefore, it is necessary to open sales after the breakdown of the support level on large volume. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The fall potential is more than 100 points.

sell cad tfxi

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar tested the previous high after the release of the payrolls. The movement was sharp and on large volume, after which a new resistance level of 0.7976 – 0.7992 was formed, in which large volume is also concentrated.

volume aud tfxi

Given the sharp price growth and the fact that it is near the resistance, it is worth considering the option with its breakdown, which will be an excellent bullish signal. The breakdown movement must be on large volume and sharp. A stop loss should be put under the volume breakout bar. The growth potential is more than 70 points.

buy aud tfxi

XAU/USD

After the test of the support level of 1315.20 – 1318.80 the price rebounded upwards on large volume. Also it is worth noting the formation of a new resistance level at the local maximum, in which large volume is concentrated. This is the level of 1328.00.

volume gold tfxi

Given the uptrend, it is worth giving preference to long positions on gold. We can open longs after a breakdown of the fresh resistance level. The breakdown movement must be sharp and on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The deal’s potential is more than 140 points.

buy gold tfxi

The sentiment: this indicator confirms all our scenarios. For both the pound and the yen the situation is ambiguous, because the sentiment shows equality.

sentiment

The bottom line: after the release of the payrolls a lot of new volume levels were created, which gives us an opportunity to trade almost all instruments.