TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 31, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions and has moved below the bullish channel support area. The AUDUSD is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is currently ranging between the clear horizontal support at 0.7870 and the recent high at 0.7995. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and retrace. The moving averages are tightening and currently moving sideways, signalling that the EURGBP may become indecisive or start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9195, 0.9235 and 0.9305 and around the moving averages.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has continued to retrace and move lower. Price has moved below all the key Fib levels and below the moving averages, suggesting that bullish momentum is weak and that the EURUSD could struggle to swing higher. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and becoming more bearish. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.1840 and 1.1825 and around the trend support area. If price does attempt a bullish move, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD found support around the longer-term moving average and the 38.2% Fib level. Price is struggling to swing higher though and is currently moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2895-1.2935. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance of the horizontal channel and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the GBPUSD could bounce or reverse off the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. If price breaks to the upside, the GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2970.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD has moved below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have just crossed bearish, suggesting that price could start down-trending. Price action is closing a bullish rejection candle at a potential bearish channel support area, signalling that the NZDUSD could start retracing. If price does start retracing, selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7195 and 0.7225, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may continue to find support around the bearish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening and the USDCAD has moved above some clear resistance levels, signalling that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2600, 1.2590 and 1.2540 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.2685.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian GDP figure will be announced at the same time.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has continued to retrace and be bullish. Price has moved above the moving averages and all the key Fib levels, suggesting that the USDCHF is lacking downside momentum and may struggle to form a swing lower. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.9440 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9695. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tight – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and around the moving averages.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price is still in a large consolidation area (108.45-110.90) and is indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels and around the moving averages.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has found support around the longer-term moving average and the 50.0% Fib level. Price could now attempt a move to the upside. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1297.45 and 1292.85. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent high at 1324.35.
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