TriumphFX – Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 30, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has moved above the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. If the AUDUSD retraces some of the recent upside move, opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal level at 0.7945 and around the bullish channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a Preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. The latest Australian Private Capital Expenditure figure will announced at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and was then bullish. As also suggested, price reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. The EURGBP is currently attempting a move out of the bullish channel. The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling that price could either become indecisive or continue to retrace. The EURGBP may start ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9230 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9305. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance).
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continued to bullish and has formed a clear swing high. The EURUSD is currently retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, signalling that price could attempt a move to the upside. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent high at 1.1260.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a Preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD is currently bearish and is retracing from the recent swing high. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may attempt to form a swing high and uptrend. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2905, around any of the key Fib levels and around the longer-term moving average. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent high at 1.2970.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a Preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to look choppy and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7195, 0.7225, 0.7290 and 0.7335.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a Preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.2445 and 1.2540. Price has been down-trending within a bearish channel but the USDCAD is now attempting a move out of the channel. Price is still ranging though. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCAD may bounce or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2590 and 1.2600.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a Preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
During yesterday’s trading sessions, the USDCHF initially moved much lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since been very bullish. Price is retracing some of the recent sell-off. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt a bearish move. Selling opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal support at 0.9595 and around the trend resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a Preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price moved below the horizontal channel support area but quickly reversed and is now attempting a large bullish move higher. The USDJPY is still in a large consolidation area (108.45-110.90) and is indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels and around the moving averages.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a Preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like many USD currency pairs, GOLD is retracing after forming a recent swing. Despite the current bearish move, the moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt to form a swing higher and continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1297.45 and 1292.85.
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