TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 18, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 18.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found support around the longer-term moving average and around the 61.8% Fib level and is currently slightly bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt to form a swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the final Fib level (61.8%). A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7960 and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7985.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 18.08.2017

The EURGBP reached the bullish channel support area and has reversed to the upside (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to move within a horizontal channel at 0.9055-0.9135 and also within a bullish channel. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that the EURGBP may become indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around both channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either channel (break-out trades).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 18.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was strongly rejected at the range support area and has since reversed off the range support. The EURUSD continues to range between the horizontal support at 1.1690 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1840. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The EURUSD is also consolidating between the horizontal support and the identified diagonal resistance area (descending triangle). Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 18.08.2017

Price has moved above the long-term trend resistance area and continues to be in a pull-back and consolidation phase. The GBPUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages suggest that price may attempt a swing to the downside – they are bearish. The moving averages are tightening though and are starting to move sideways, suggesting that price could start ranging. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance levels at 1.2960 and 1.3015. The GBPUSD could range between the horizontal levels at 1.2845 and 1.2905. Price may continue to retrace within the identified bullish channel.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 18.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.7225-0.7330. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price action is forming a large inverted head and shoulder price pattern, suggesting that the NZDUSD could break to the upside. If price breaks to the upside, the NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7365.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 18.08.2017

The USDCAD has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving  averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt to swing lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the potential bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2590 and around the potential bearish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A Canadian CPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 18.08.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.9595 and the recent highs at 0.9765. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 18.08.2017

Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY continues to be indecisive and range. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 108.95-110.90. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 18.08.2017

GOLD is indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1268.00 and the horizontal resistance at 1291.15. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade).