TriumphFX – Intraday Forex Analysis – August 16, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 16.08.2017

The AUDUSD has been bearish and is now retracing some of the recent bearish swing. Price has clearly been down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and are widening and the AUDUSD is moving within a bearish channel, all suggesting that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7845 and 0.7915, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent low at 0.7810 and around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1800 UTC. Australian Employment data will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 16.08.2017

Price continues to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price action has also formed a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.9055. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area. The EURGBP is struggling to move above the 0.9125 resistance area and reach the resistance side of the bullish channel, suggesting that buying momentum may be weakening, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move and retrace.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

UK Average Earnings Index is at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 16.08.2017

The EURUSD is indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1690 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1840. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1800 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 16.08.2017

Price has moved below the recent horizontal consolidation support area (horizontal channel) and has formed a swing lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. If the GBPUSD starts retracing, selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages, around the identified trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal channel levels at 1.2960 and 1.3015.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

UK Average Earnings Index is at 0830 UTC today. A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1800 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 16.08.2017

Just like the AUDUSD and other currency pairs, the NZDUSD continues to trend and move lower. Price is currently forming a new swing low. If the NZDUSD starts retracing some of the recent bearish move, selling opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7255/60, 0.7280/85, 0.7325 and 0.7365. Selling opportunities could also exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1800 UTC. A New Zealand PPI figure will be announced at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 16.08.2017

The USDCAD is clearly moving in an upwards direction but recent price action has been choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are fairly tight. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels and around the moving averages. If the USDCAD moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.2765, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1800 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 16.08.2017

Price is indecisive and is moving within a large horizontal channel at 0.9595-0.9765. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1800 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 16.08.2017

Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 110.90, 110.10 and 108.95 and around the moving averages. If price moves above the horizontal resistance at 110.90, the USDJPY could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1800 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 16.08.2017

GOLD has been retracing some of the recent bullish swing. Price recently found support around the 61.8% Fib level. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that GOLD may struggle to form a swing higher and that the downside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the 61.8% Fib level. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.