TriumphFX Intraday Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 14, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 14.08.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD continued to fail to reach the bearish channel support area and has now moved above the channel resistance area. Price is now indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7840-0.7920. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will release their Monetary Policy Minutes at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 14.08.2017

The EURGBP moved above the range resistance and has since been slightly bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may continue to uptrend. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous range resistance at 0.9080, around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 14.08.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price broke to the upside of the horizontal channel and has since been bullish. The EURUSD is now indecisive and is lacking clear trend direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1710, 1.1775, 1.1840 and 1.1885. The moving averages have just crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt a bullish move. Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 14.08.2017

Price has been reversing around the range support and resistance areas (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to range between the horizontal support at 1.2960 and the range resistance at 1.3015. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 14.08.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed around the trend resistance area and has since formed a swing lower. Price has been down-trending but is now consolidating within a bearish triangle pattern (descending triangle). Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation resistance area (the trend resistance) and the consolidation support area (horizontal support at 0.7255) and if the NZDUSD moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price may continue to be bearish and break to the downside.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 14.08.2017

The USDCAD was bearish and moved below the trend support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has now become indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2655 and the recent swing high at 1.2750. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 14.08.2017

Just like other currency pairs, the USDCHF has become indecisive. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.9595-0.9670. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are starting to tighten. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCHF may stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.9765.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The CHF has seen added strength with the escalating contention between the US and North Korea.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 14.08.2017

The USDJPY continued to be bearish and has formed a swing lower. Price is clearly down-trending and is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish are widening, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 110.10 and 110.90. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 108.95.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The JPY has seen added strength with the escalating contention between the US and North Korea.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 14.08.2017

Price recently formed a bullish swing higher but has since been quiet. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that GOLD could attempt another bullish move. If price starts retracing, long opportunities may exist around the horizontal support at 1284.00, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous highs at 1272.85. There is a possibility that GOLD could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1284.00 and 1291.25.