Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 14-18.08.2017


EUR/USD

After the release of negative macroeconomic data in the US, EUR/USD showed a rapid growth on increased volume. Unfortunately, volume was spread throughout the upward movement, so it is impossible to allocate any specific volume level or zone. Nevertheless, such a price reaction calls into question the further fall  of the pair.

volume euro tfxi

Of course, given the global trend and sharp growth on Friday, long positions look preferable, but if you look more globally, the price is in the consolidation, so we can trade this currency pair only after exiting from the consolidation. The breakout should be on increased or large volume. Until that we should stay out of the market.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD pair tested the support level at 1.2959 and rebounded on increased volume, which only increases the strength of this mark. Nevertheless, the price is still in the consolidation.

volume gbp tfxi

Thus, short positions can be considered only after a sharp breakdown of support on large volume. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 120 points.
As for purchases, it is possible to open long positions only after the breakdown of resistance level 1.3144 – 1.3168 on large volume. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

trade gbp tfxi

USD/JPY

After the news release on Friday, a pin bar and a new support level 108.80 were formed, in which large volume is concentrated. Also, the resistance level 109.37 – 109.47, which was tested on Friday, remains relevant. Thus, the pair is trading between two strong volume levels.

volume jpy tfxi

We can enter the market only after the breakdown of the boundaries of the consolidation on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed under/above the breakout volume bar. The fall potential is 90-100 points; as for growth – up to 120 points. Of course, given the strong downward trend, a more likely scenario of breakdown of support and sales opening.

sell jpy tfxi

USD/CAD

USD/CAD showed a rapid fall on large volume, which, unfortunately, was evenly distributed over the price movement. However, the pair is trading in local consolidation near the local maximum. It should be noted that there is a strong uptrend for USD/CAD , so we should give preference to purchases.

volume cad tfxi

We can open long positions only after the fall and the price rise above the local maximum. It is desirable that the price growth was on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The growth potential is about 100 points.

buy cad tfxi

As for sales, it is not worthwhile considering them due to a strong uptrend.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose sharply on Friday against the US dollar. It is worth noting that the price increase was on very large scale. Also, a new resistance level 0.7908 was formed, which stopped the price growth and contained a fairly large volume.

volume aud tfxi

Thus, this level is the cornerstone for the trading of this currency pair. If the price breaks this resistance on large volume, it will be an excellent signal for purchases. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is 70-80 points.

buy aud tfxi

As for the sales, they can be considered only in case of a breakdown of the local minimum.

XAU/USD

A strong uptrend is observed on gold + the price grows on increased volume, thus it is worth giving preference to long positions for this instrument. It is also necessary to note a new resistance level 1291.10, which was formed on Friday and contains a fairly large volume and is a local maximum.

volume gold tfxi

We can open long positions after a sure breakout of the resistance on increased volume. A stop loss must be placed under the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 130 points.

buy gold tfxi

The sentiment: the mood of the “crowd” confirms our scenarios for the yen, the Australian dollar and gold. For pound, the situation is unclear, since this indicator shows equilibrium. For euro purchases are in priority, while for the Canadian dollar is a sale.

sentiment

The bottom line: the situation on the market is pretty tough, because many instruments are trading in consolidations or correcting now, that’s why we need to be extremely careful. XAU/USD is in priority.