TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 11, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 11.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal and bearish channel resistance areas and has moved lower. The AUDUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Price is struggling to reach the channel support area though, suggesting that the AUDUSD may attempt a bullish move above the channel resistance area. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 0.7860 and 0.7900, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. If the AUDUSD moves above these resistance areas, price could become bullish.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 11.08.2017

Price has reversed around the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to range between the horizontal support at 0.9010 and the recent high at 0.9080. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURGBP breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8975.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 11.08.2017

The EURUSD has moved above the consolidation resistance area but price continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1.1710-1.1775. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The EURUSD could stall or reverse around the previous triangular consolidation resistance area (as support).

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 11.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been reversing around the identified horizontal levels and has formed a clear horizontal channel at 1.2955-1.3015. The moving averages now confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 11.08.2017

Price is clearly down-trending and has moved below the recent bearish channel support area. The NZDUSD is now moving sideways and ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7255 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7290. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are still bearish and are steady, suggesting that the NZDUSD may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7310 and 0.7365 and around the trend resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. New Zealand Retails Sales will be announced on Sunday at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 11.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish around the longer-term moving average and is now forming a swing higher. The USDCAD continues to uptrend and be bullish. The moving averages are still bullish but they are not as wide as they were and price seems to running-low on buying momentum – all signalling that the USDCAD could attempt a bearish move and start retracing some of the recent uptrend. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 11.08.2017

The USDCHF has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has moved lower. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lows and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, all suggesting that that the USDCHF may continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9620 and 0.9670, around the trend resistance area and around the bearish moving averages.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The CHF has seen added strength with the escalating contention between the US and North Korea.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 11.08.2017

Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY reversed around a key Fib level and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been very bearish. Price is now retracing slightly. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the USDJPY may continue to downtrend. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.65 and 110.10.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The JPY has seen added strength with the escalating contention between the US and North Korea.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 11.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has continued to be bullish and has moved higher. Price is now retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that GOLD could attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1272.95 and 1269.55.