Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 07-11.08.2017


EUR/USD

After the release of good data on the labor market in the US, EUR/USD showed a strong fall and broke through the previous support level. The price reduction was on large volume, which only strengthens its value. Also it is worth noting the new level of support, which stopped the price fall. This is the level 1.1744 – 1.1767. In this level, large volume is concentrated.

volume euro tfxi

Given that the price did not show a sharp rebound from this level, it is worth considering the sales scenario after a sure breakdown of this support. Movement should be on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed slightly above the breakdown bar. The potential of the deal is 100-110 points.

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As for long positions, they should be considered only in case of full absorption of the price fall.

GBP/USD

The pound also fell after the release of the payrolls on Friday. The fall was sharp and on increased volume, however, it is not possible to single out a new level.
Nevertheless, the previous resistance level 1.3144 – 1.3168 remains relevant, after all, after its test, the price continued falling.

volume gbp tfxi

Thus, it is worth considering the scenario of opening short positions. Given that the price is quite far from the resistance, we need to wait for a smooth correction of the price up after which we can open sales. A stop loss should be placed a little above the level of 1.3168. The drop potential is about 120 points.

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USD/JPY

Despite a sharp growth of the price on Friday, USD/JPY is trading in the consolidation now. It is worth noting a new level of resistance, which was formed after the payrolls – 110.86 – 111.02, in which large volume is concentrated. Also, the level of support 109.97 – 110.20 remains relevant.
Therefore, we can trade this currency pair only after a confident exit of the price from this range. Breakout of the level should be sharp and on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above/below the breakout volume bar. The growth potential is 90-100 points, the fall is 100-110 points.

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USD/CAD

After the appearance of large volume on the market, USD/CAD continued its growth, with what it did on large volume, which is a good signal for purchases. Also it is worth noting the new resistance level 1.2664, which stopped the upward movement. But considering that the price did not show a significant reaction from it, we should consider the scenario of its breakout. A movement should be on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed just below the volume breakout bar. A deal potential is up to 120 points.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD pair showed a strong fall on large volume. It is worth noting the formation of a new level of support 0.7895 – 0.7905, in which large volume is concentrated.
Nevertheless, given the strengthening of the US dollar and the absence of a sharp price rebound, it is worth considering a breakdown of this level on increased volume, which will be an excellent signal for sales.
A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The deal’s potential is about 100 points, which is a very good indicator for this instrument.

sell aud tfxi

XAU/USD

Gold also fell against the US dollar after the news release on Friday. The fall was rapid and on very large volume. During this movement, a new resistance level 1261.10 – 1263.60 was formed, in which large volume is concentrated.

volume gold tfxi

Given such a strong exit of the price from consolidation, it is worth considering short positions as a priority scenario. Sales should be opened after resuming the price fall on increased volume, preferably after a slight correction or resistance test. A stop loss is worth a little above the resistance level. The potential of the deal is 120 points.

sell gold tfxi

The sentiment: unfortunately, this indicator has not reacted on the price moves on Friday, so it is pointless to look at it now.

The bottom line: the payrolls gave us a plenty of interesting scenarios for trading, so now we just need to wait for good entry points and trade these instruments.