TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 02, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 02.08.2017

The AUDUSD has been bearish and has closed below the bullish channel support area. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price may move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area and around the moving averages. The moving averages are also moving sideways, signalling that the AUDUSD could become indecisive and potentially range between the horizontal levels at 0.7940 and 0.8040. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. An Australian Trade Balance figure will be announced at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 02.08.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and move within 2 horizontal channels; a tighter channel at 0.8925-0.8970 and a wider channel at 0.8895-0.8990. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around both horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of either channel (break-out trades).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 02.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average and continues to be bullish. The EURUSD has been clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1760. Price may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1840. If the EURUSD moves below the trend support area, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

US Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 02.08.2017

The GBPUSD has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and is retracing some of the recent bullish swing. Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3150. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 02.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent trend support area and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 0.7465 and 0.7525, around the moving averages and around the previous trend support area (as resistance). A bearish move may find support around the horizontal support at 0.7410.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 02.08.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved above the range resistance area. The USDCAD has formed a large double-bottom reversal pattern and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that price could attempt a move higher. If the USDCAD starts retracing, buying opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance area at 1.2560, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified diagonal support area.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 02.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected again at the 38.2% Fib level and reversed around the longer-term moving average. Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9610 and 0.9590. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.9715. The USDCHF is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

US Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 02.08.2017

The USDJPY has been bullish and has moved above all the resistance areas identified in yesterday’s chart analysis. Price is above the moving averages – suggesting that buying momentum is strengthening. The moving averages are moving sideways though, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 110.10, 110.90, 111.65 and 112.35 and around the moving averages.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 02.08.2017

GOLD is looking indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1263.95 and the horizontal resistance at 1272.80. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1257.30. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.