Daily Technical Forex Forecast 02.08.2017


EUR/USD

After the test of the support level 1.1785 – 1.1792, the euro started trading in the local consolidation a little bit above this level. This range contains quite large volume, so we can decide that big players are gaining positions there. Also we need to point out that there is no resistance or notable volume at the top of the chart.

Given these facts and that the global uptrend for the euro remains relevant, we should give preference to long positions.

volume euro

We can enter the market after the beginning of the growth of the price on increased volume, which will be a great signal of the continuation of the trend. A stop loss should be placed below the level of support 1.1785 – 1.1792 with a little margin. A potential of the deal is 100-110 points.

buy euro

GBP/USD

The price is trading in the local consolidation near the level of support 1.3172 – 1.3195, which contains large volume and is a cornerstone of trading GBP/USD. Given the presence of the strong support and the actual uptrend, we should give preference to long positions.

volume gbp

We can enter the market after a resumption of the growth of the price on large volume. The move can be either from the current level or after the test of the support. A stop loss should be place below the level 1.3172 – 1.3195 with a little margin. A potential of the deal is around 100 points.

buy gbp

USD/JPY

It is very probable that we will see an upward correction for the yen, as the new strong support was created yesterday and the pair grew up after this. This is the level 109.97 – 110.20. Large volume is concentrated in this level + on H1 chart we can see a strong pin-bar. But even given these facts, we should not open long positions because there is a strong global downtrend for the yen.

That’s why we should stay out of the market and watch for further move of the price. If we talk about short positions, we can open them only after the confident breakdown of the support.

volume jpy

USD/CAD

USD/CAD grew up pretty rapidly, but the move was on medium volume, so that it is difficult to point out new levels or zones. Moreover, there is a strong global downtrend, so opening long positions is not the best idea. We need to wait for strong impulse on very large volume that will be a good indicator of further behavior of the price.

Until that it is better to stay out of the market.

volume cad

AUD/USD

Nothing has changed for the Australian dollar as the price is still trading in the local consolidation + volume on the market is really small. That’s we our previous scenario remains the same – we should enter the market only after the appearance of large volume and creation of new strong levels or zones.

volume aud

XAU/USD

After the test of the support level 1263.40, gold showed a rather rapid rebound, in addition, there was a pin bar on H1 chart. Nevertheless, the price was not able to continue the upward movement and after the formation of large volume at the local maximum, gold corrected down and is trading near the  support again.
It is necessary to point out the new resistance level 1273.30, in which large volume is concentrated and which stopped the growth of the pair.
Thus, gold is trading in local consolidation between the two levels now. Also it is worth noting the presence of large volume accumulation in this range.

volume gold tfxi

Therefore, we can trade this pair only after a confident and sharp exit of the price from the consolidation. Given a strong uptrend, preference should be given precisely to the breakdown of the resistance and opening of long positions.
We can enter the market after the resumption of growth and breakout of the level 1273.30 on large volume. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is 150 points.

buy gold tfxi

If the price breaks through the support level, it’s better to be out of the market and not trade against such a strong uptrend.

The sentiment: our scenarios for the euro and the pound are confirmed, so these pairs are in priority. For gold the situation is 50/50, so we should use only technical instrument for analyzing it.

sentiment

The bottom line: pretty tough situation on the market, but still EUR/USD, GBP/USD and gold can be traded in case of good additional signals.