TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 01, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

AUDUSD - 01.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. The AUDUSD continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 0.8005, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.8055 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

EURGBP - 01.08.2017

Price is moving within 2 horizontal channels; a tighter channel at 0.8930-0.8970 and a wider channel at 0.8895-0.8990. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around both horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of either channel (break-out trades). Price action has also formed a bullish channel, suggesting that the EURGBP may break to the upside.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

A UK Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

EURUSD - 01.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD moved above the consolidation resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. If the EURUSD starts retracing, long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1760, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. If price moves below the trend support area, the EURUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

GBPUSD - 01.08.2017

The GBPUSD reversed bullish around the shorter-term moving average and has since moved above the consolidation resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since been bullish and is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening and the GBPUSD has formed a bullish channel – all suggesting that upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous consolidation resistance area at 1.3150, around the bullish moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A UK Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

NZDUSD - 01.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed bullish around the trend support area. The NZDUSD is now ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7460 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7525. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the NZDUSD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.7550. The moving averages are bullish and are steady and the trend support continues to hold – signalling that the NZDUSD could move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. New Zealand Employment data will released at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

USDCAD - 01.08.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.2420-1.2565. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

USDCHF - 01.08.2017

The USDCHF continues to retrace some of the recent bullish move. Price was rejected at the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the USDCHF could move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous swing highs at 0.9610 and 0.9590. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9715.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

USDJPY - 01.08.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the trend resistance area and has been moving lower. The USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 110.90.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 01.08.2017

GOLD has found support around the identified diagonal support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is now moving within a tight horizontal channel at 1266.45-1270.50. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may break to the upside. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1257.30 and 1264.00. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the identified diagonal resistance area.