TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 31, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7945-0.8005. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend momentum – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). The AUDUSD is also moving within a bullish channel and has been up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the bullish channel support area. If price moves below the channel support, the AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7875. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Statement is at 0430 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has reversed around the range resistance area. Price continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.8895 and 0.8960. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the swing high at 0.8990. If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP may stall or reverse around the swing low at 0.8830.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed around the horizontal resistance area at 1.1760 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1.1620-1.1760 and also between the horizontal resistance and the trend support area (triangular price pattern). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may break to the upside. Trading opportunities could exist around both consolidation pattern support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of either pattern (break-out trades).
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been moving off the consolidation support and resistance areas. The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and move between the trend support area and the horizontal resistance at 1.3150. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the GBPUSD may break to the upside.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has reversed bullish around the 61.8% Fib level, the trend support area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has clearly been up-trending but is now struggling to form a swing higher. The bullish moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the lack of buying momentum. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.7455 and 0.7445. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.7550.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like a number of currency pairs, the USDCAD is consolidating and is indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2420 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2565. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the 23.6% Fib level. The USDCHF has formed a swing higher and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, both signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9610 and 0.9590. Price may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9715.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price moved below the symmetrical triangle support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDJPY may continue with it’s recent downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the previous horizontal support at 110.85, around the previous symmetrical triangle support area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. If the USDJPY moves above all the potential resistance areas, price could attempt a bullish move higher.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continued to find support around the horizontal level at 1258.00 and has now moved higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1257.30 and 1264.00. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the identified diagonal resistance area.
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