TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 28, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been retracing the recent bullish move. The AUDUSD is now finding support around the previous horizontal channel resistance area and the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that price may attempt a swing higher and carry on up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 0.7960 and 0.7880 and around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision -they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.8895 and 0.8950. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the EURGBP breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the swing high at 0.8990. If the EURGBP breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the swing low at 0.8830. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the bearish channel support and resistance areas.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the trend support area and is currently forming the start of a potential swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. Price could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1620 and 1.1760. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been retracing the recent bullish move. The GBPUSD is looking a little indecisive. Price action has formed a tightening triangle pattern and the GBPUSD is consolidating within the pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may break to the upside.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The NZDUSD has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the 61.8% Fib level, around the horizontal levels at 0.7460, 0.7445 and 0.7410, around the moving averages and around the trend support area. If the NZDUSD moves below the trend support area, price could attempt a bearish move lower.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has been bullish and has moved above the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The bearish moving averages are tightening and are likely to cross bullish. Price action may also be forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern, all suggesting that the USDCAD could move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.2530, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support). A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2640 and 1.2700.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian GDP figure will be announced at the same time.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF moved above the consolidation resistance area and has since been very bullish. If price pulls-back, buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9610 and 0.9590 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDCHF may start up-trending.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been finding support around the symmetrical triangle support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and consolidate within a symmetrical triangle pattern and also between the horizontal levels at 110.70 and 112.35. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around both consolidation pattern support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of either consolidation pattern (break-out trades).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Advance GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area and has since been finding support around the previous swing high at 1258.00 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the buying momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal level at 1258.00, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. GOLD may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.
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