TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 27, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the horizontal channel support area. As also suggested, price closed above the horizontal channel and has since been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the AUDUSD may start up-trending. If price starts retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 0.7965 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Core Durable Goods Orders figure and Unemployment Claims are set to be announced at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and is ranging. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the 2 horizontal levels at 0.8905 and 0.8955. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.8990. If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP may stall or reverse around the recent low at 0.8830.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the range resistance area at 1.1695 and continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish again and are starting to widen, suggesting that the EURUSD could swing higher. Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous range support and resistance areas (1.1620 & 1.1695), around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A US Core Durable Goods Orders figure and Unemployment Claims are set to be announced at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed bullish around the horizontal support at 1.3010 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since moved much higher. The GBPUSD is forming a new high and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3120 and 1.3075, around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Core Durable Goods Orders figure and Unemployment Claims are set to be announced at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been very bullish. Price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the NZDUSD is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price looks a little over-extended, signalling that a retracement may be due. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the horizontal levels at 0.7460, 0.7445 and 0.7410, around the moving averages and around the trend support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Core Durable Goods Orders figure and Unemployment Claims are set to be announced at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to downtrend within the bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the selling momentum is not weakening and that the USDCAD may continue to be bearish. The channel support and resistance areas have been tested several times, this suggests that price could soon move out of the channel. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.2490, around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. If price moves above the bearish channel resistance, the USDCAD may attempt a bullish move higher.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Core Durable Goods Orders figure and Unemployment Claims are set to be announced at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF is looking indecisive. Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern and the USDCHF is consolidating within the pattern. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and if price moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9440 and 0.9590.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
A US Core Durable Goods Orders figure and Unemployment Claims are set to be announced at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like USDCHF, USDJPY is also looking indecisive and has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price is also moving within a large horizontal channel at 110.70-112.35. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around both consolidation pattern support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of either consolidation pattern (break-out trades).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Core Durable Goods Orders figure and Unemployment Claims are set to be announced at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the range support area at 1243.80. As also suggested, price moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish but are tight, signalling that GOLD may uptrend but could retrace before moving higher. Long opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 1258.00, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.
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