Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 24-28.07.2017


EUR/USD

The uptrend for EUR/USD continues. The price showed a sharp growth on very large volume last week. In addition, the upward movement was on large ASK deltas, so we can consider about the domination of buyers.
It is also necessary to note a strong support level 1.1548 – 1.1570, in which very large volume is concentrated. The sharp growth began from this level.

volume euro

Thus, we should consider long positions as a priority scenario. We can open purchases after a smooth price correction down to get a good entry point and an acceptable stop loss size.
The potential of the deal is more than 110-120 points. A stop loss should be placed under the level 1.1548.

buy euro tfxi

GBP/USD

After a strong bearish impulse, the pound began trading in the consolidation, which is still there. Volume is spread throughout the consolidation, so it is very difficult to single out some new levels. Even volume in the market profile do not show a clear accumulation at any one level.

volume gbp

Thus, it is very difficult to analyze and build trading decisions on this instrument. It is worth waiting for the beginning of the local trend and the appearance of large volumes, which will prompt further direction of the price.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY broke the previous local minimum. The breakdown was confident, despite it was on small volume. This is an excellent signal for the continuation of the downtrend. In view of the fact that the volume was small and distributed throughout the movement, it is impossible to point out new levels.
Nevertheless, the level 112.19 – 112.26 remains relevant, because it contains large volume, after which the price showed a sharp fall.

volume jpy

Given a strong downtrend, only short positions should be considered. We can enter the market after a smooth correction of the price upwards, in order to obtain an acceptable risk/profit ratio.
A stop loss should be placed above the level 112.26. The potential of the deal is 100-110 points.

sell jpy tfxi

USD/CAD

USD/CAD pair broke through the support level and was fixed below it. The breakdown was on increased volume and rather sharp, and given the strong downtrend, it is necessary to give preference to short positions for this currency pair.
Also it is necessary to allocate a new level of resistance, from which the breakout price movement began. This is the level 1.2554 – 1.2570.

volume cad

We can open sales after the resumption of falling of the price on increased volume. The downward movement can begin both from the current level or after correction/test of the resistance. A stop loss should be placed above the level 1.2570. The fall potential is more than 100 points.

sell cad tfxi

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is trading in the consolidation just below the local maximum now. It is worth noting the resistance level/the upper limit of the consolidation 0.7961, in which large volume is concentrated.

volume aud

It is also important to note that the global uptrend for the Australian dollar is still relevant, thus it is not recommended to open sales. As for purchases, long positions can be opened only after a sharp and confident breakout of the resistance on large volume. A stop loss should be placed below the volume breakout bar. The potential of the deal is about 80 points.

buy aud tfxi

XAU/USD

After the breakdown of the resistance level, the price steadily continued growing, with the upward movement accompanied by rather large volume. Thus, the most likely option is the continuation of a local uptrend for gold.
It is also worth highlighting the volume support level of 1238.30 – 1239.70.

volume gold

Therefore, it is necessary to consider exceptionally long positions. We can open the purchase after a smooth correction down to get the best entry point. A stop loss should be placed just below the support level. The potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

buy gold tfxi

The sentiment: all our scenarios except gold are confirmed by the mood of the market. Nevertheless, in terms of gold, all technical factors point to open purchases.

sentiment

The bottom line: there are a plenty of good scenarios for trading. Especially, USD/JPY and USD/CAD. For EUR/USD and XAU/USD we need to wait for corrections. For the pound, it is better to stay out of the market.