TriumphFX Inter-day Forex Analysis – Daily Charts – July 21, 2017


 

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

 

AUDUSD - 21.07.2017 - Daily

The AUDUSD has moved above a clear horizontal resistance area at 0.7750 and is formed strong swing higher. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that price could start up-trending. The last couple of trading days have been bearish, suggesting that price may start retracing some of the recent bullish move. If the AUDUSD does start retracing, opportunities to go long and join the trend could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7750 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

 

EURGBP – Daily Chart

 

EURGBP - 21.07.2017 - Daily

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, the EURGBP has moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is now moving within a much larger range at 0.8325-0.9050 and the EURGBP is headed towards the range resistance area. Selling opportunities could exist if the resistance area holds. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may break to the upside of the range. Long opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 0.8850, around the bullish moving averages and if price moves above the new range resistance area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

 

EURUSD – Daily Chart

 

EURUSD - 21.07.2017 - Daily

Price moved above the tight horizontal channel at 1.1125-1.1280 and has since been very bullish (as suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis). The EURUSD has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, all suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.1350 and 1.1275. The current bullish move may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

 

USDCAD – Daily Chart

 

USDCAD - 21.07.2017 - Daily

The USDCAD has been very bearish and has moved below a number of key support levels. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price could start down-trending. If the USDCAD starts retracing, selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2775, 1.3025 and 1.3200 and around the bearish moving averages.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

 

USDCHF – Daily Chart

 

USDCHF - 21.07.2017 - Daily

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, the USDCHF found resistance around the shorter-term moving average and continues to downtrend. Price is moving below the bearish channel support area and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, all suggesting that the USDCHF may continue to downtrend. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel support area, around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9625, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified shorter-term trend resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

 

USDJPY – Daily Chart

 

USDJPY - 21.07.2017 - Daily

Price continues to be indecisive. The USDJPY is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern and also within a horizontal channel at 108.25-114.50. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around both consolidation pattern support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either consolidation (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the swing high at 118.25.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

 

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

 

XAUUSD - 21.07.2017 - Daily

GOLD is moving sideways and is indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are providing no trend direction – confirming the current indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1212.50 and 1295.25. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, GOLD may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1199.25 and 1127.50.