TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 20, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 20.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to move higher and uptrend. The AUDUSD is now retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price may attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous swing high at 0.7835. The AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7960.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 20.07.2017

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8745, 0.8820, 0.8895 and 0.8940.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

UK Retail Sales data will be released at 0830 UTC today. The ECB will Announces Rates at 1145 UTC. This is followed by a ECB Press Conference at 1230 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 20.07.2017

The EURUSD continues to retrace some of the recent bullish swing and has moved below the trend support area and the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt to swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1485. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1580.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.

The ECB will Announces Rates at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a ECB Press Conference at 1230 UTC. A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at the same time.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 20.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been bouncing off 2 identified horizontal levels. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3005-1.3050. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the GBPUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3115. If price breaks to the downside, the GBPUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.2975.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

UK Retail Sales data will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 20.07.2017

Price moved above the horizontal resistance area at 0.7370 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but the move was quickly reversed. The NZDUSD has since been bearish. Price is consolidating between the horizontal resistance and the identified diagonal support area. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 20.07.2017

The USDCAD is consolidating between the trend resistance and a horizontal support level at 1.1285. Price is also moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2585-1.2700. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the consolidation pattern (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price could break to the downside. If the USDCAD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal channel resistance area and psychological level at 1.2700.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 20.07.2017

Price is retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt a swing lower. Price is looking a little indecisive and choppy though. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9610. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the identified diagonal support area and around the horizontal support at 0.9525.

The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 20.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has moved above the bearish channel resistance area and is looking more bullish. The USDJPY is above the shorter-term moving average and price action could be forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern or double bottom, all suggesting that the USDJPY may attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous channel resistance area, around the swing low at 111.60 and if price forms one of the reversal patterns. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 112.85 and 113.55.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 20.07.2017

GOLD is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1237.70 and 1243.80. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that GOLD could break to the upside. If price breaks to the downside, GOLD may stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1228.10 and 1225.05.