TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 19, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the upside momentum has continued and the AUDUSD has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. If price pulls-back, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.7835 and 0.7785 and around the trend support area. The AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7940.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. This has caused greater bullish momentum. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. Australia’s latest Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be announced at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8745, 0.8820, 0.8895 and 0.8940.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has formed a swing high and is clearly up-trending. The EURUSD is retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the identified trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1485. Price may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1580.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price moved below the horizontal channel support area but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2970, 1.3005, 1.3050 and 1.3120. If the GBPUSD moves below the horizontal support at 1.2970, price may attempt a bearish move lower.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the range resistance area. Price continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.7200 and 0.7365. Price action has formed a diagonal support area and the NZDUSD is testing the range resistance area again, all signalling that price may move above the range resistance area. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and are steady. Long opportunities could exist if the NZDUSD moves above the range resistance area, around the bullish moving averages and around the diagonal support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD moved below the horizontal channel support area and continues to downtrend. Price has now become indecisive and is moving within a new horizontal channel at 1.2595-1.2700. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the previous horizontal support and psychological at 0.9600 and has moved much lower. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCHF could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9610. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the swing low at 0.9525.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The USDJPY has struggled to form a swing low at the channel support area, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. The moving averages are still bearish but are beginning to move a little more sideways, also suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. Price move above the channel resistance area and attempt a bullish move. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 112.85 and 113.55.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to be bullish and move higher. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may uptrend. If GOLD starts retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1228.10 and 1225.05 and around the trend support area.
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