TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 17, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has been very bullish and has formed a large swing higher. Price is now moving within a tight horizontal channel at 0.7805-0.7825. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD may continue to uptrend. Price action suggests that price is due a retracement first though. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside and starts retracing some of the recent bullish move, buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7705, 0.7690 and 0.7680.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released at 0130 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price was very bearish during Friday’s trading sessions but the EURGBP continues to look indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price has closed below a key horizontal support at 0.8755, signalling that the EURGBP may attempt to move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8755 and 0.8825, around the identified bearish channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. Price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle and also within a horizontal channel. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidation patterns and if price moves out of either pattern (break-out trade). If the EURUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.1320.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has continued to be bullish and is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that the GBPUSD could be due a retracement before attempting a move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal levels at 1.3030, 1.2975 and 1.2915 and around the bullish moving averages.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish and moved above the horizontal channel resistance at 0.7345 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD quickly reversed the bullish move though and price is back within a horizontal channel at 0.7200-0.7360. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are very bullish and are widening, suggesting that the NZDUSD may attempt another bullish break-out.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
A New Zealand CPI figure will be released at 2245 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and has continued to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2700 and 1.2765 and around the bearish moving averages. The USDCAD could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2640.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF continues to look choppy and be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a slight bullish channel though and the USDCHF is moving within the channel, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the recent high and psychological level at 0.9700.
The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price action has formed a short series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and has formed a downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the USDJPY could continue to downtrend. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 112.85, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. The US Federal Reserve rate recently increased rates to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD moved above the consolidation areas and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 1228.10, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle.
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