TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 14, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 14.07.2017

Price has continued to be bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and are still widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. The AUDUSD is looking over-extended though and could be due a bearish retracement. If price does start retracing, buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal levels at 0.7705, 0.7690 and 0.7680 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 14.07.2017

The recent rally has been reversed. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages and price action confirm this – all is moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8755, 0.8825 and 0.8940.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 14.07.2017

The EURUSD has moved below the bullish channel support area. Price is now ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1380 and 1.1490. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance).

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 14.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has moved out of the recent bearish channel and has since been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.2915, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support). A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2975 and 1.3030.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 14.07.2017

Price continues to be indecisive. The NZDUSD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 0.7200-0.7345. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have moving in a general sideways direction since late June.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainty continues.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 14.07.2017

The USDCAD continues to retrace some of the recent bearish move. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the other identified resistance areas. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Price may stall or reverse around the swing low at 1.2700.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 0.75%. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 14.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range resistance area and continues to range.  The USDCHF continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9595 and 0.9690. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDCHF may stall or reverse around the recent low at 0.9550.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 14.07.2017

Price has reversed around the horizontal support at 112.80 and is now moving within a horizontal channel at 112.80-114.45 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are moving sideways and providing no clear direction – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 14.07.2017

GOLD is consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle and a large horizontal channel at 1206.65-1228.15. Trading opportunities could exist either consolidation pattern support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either consolidation pattern (break-out trades). The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision.