TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 13, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 13.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the buying momentum has continued and the AUDUSD has moved much higher. The moving averages are still bullish and are still widening, signalling that price may move even higher. The AUDUSD is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that price may be due a bearish retracement. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7705, 0.7690 and 0.7680 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1400 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 13.07.2017

The EURGBP has been very bearish and has retraced most of the recent bullish swing. Price found support around the previous swing high at 0.8855 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the EURGBP could attempt a swing higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8855 and 0.8825. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the swing high at 0.8940.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 13.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the bullish channel support area and continues to uptrend within the channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 1.1380. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the previous swing high at 1.1490 and around the channel resistance area.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 13.07.2017

Price reversed around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been bullish. The GBPUSD is attempting to move above the channel resistance area and the bearish moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 13.07.2017

The NZDUSD has been bullish and has moved higher. Price is now looking indecisive again and seems to have no clear market direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7300, 0.7290 and 0.7280 and around the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 13.07.2017

Price has formed a swing lower and continues to downtrend. The USDCAD is retracing some of the recent bearish move. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the other identified resistance areas. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Price may stall or reverse around the swing low at 1.2700.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. Most economists are expecting the Bank of Canada to raise rates today. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 13.07.2017

The USDCHF is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9595 and 0.9690. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDCHF may stall or reverse around the recent low at 0.9550.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1400 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 13.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has continued to be bearish and has found support around the horizontal channel support area. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 112.80-114.45. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price may break to the downside.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair Testimony at 1400 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 13.07.2017

GOLD was rejected around the previous range resistance (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to move within large horizontal channel at 1206.65-1228.15. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance levels and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).