TriumphFX Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 10-14.07.2017


EUR/USD

The euro did not show strong reaction of the payroll and the pairs stayed trading in the consolidation between 2 levels: the global support 1.1309 – 1.1329 and the local resistance 1.1424, that was created after the release of the labor market data.

Besides it, we should point out the presence of the strong volume accumulation inside the range, so the breakout of the boundaries of the consolidation will be a good signal for beginning of a new trend.

Also we need to highlight that the global uptrend for the euro is still actual, so it makes long positions more priority scenario.

volume euro

We can open long positions after the confident breakout of the resistance 1.1424 on increased volume to avoid fake movements. After the fixation of the price above it, we enter the market. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 100 pips.

buy euro

GBP/USD

The pound has broken down the global support 1.2897 – 1.2910 after the release of the payrolls. The breakout move was supported by increased volume and pretty abrupt. Also we need to point out the new level of resistance 1.2904 – 1.2915, that contains quite large volume.

Also we should point out the presence of the volume accumulation at the top of the chart that pushes the pair down.

volume gbp

So now we can consider opening short positions for this pair. We can enter the market after the test of the resistance and the strong rebound of the price down. The move should be on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level of resistance. A potential of the fall is around 90 pips.

sell gbp

USD/JPY

After the release of the mixed data for the payroll the yen continued growing on large volume, so global uptrend  is going on. Also we need to point out the new resistance level 113.69 – 113.81, which contains really large volume.

So given all these facts, we should consider only long positions.

volume jpy

We can enter the market after the resumption of the growth on increased volume. Also we can open long positions after the test of the support and the sharp rebound of the price up. A stop loss should be placed below the level 113.45. A potential of the deal is more than 100 pips.

buy jpy

USD/CAD

After trading in the consolidation, the price fell down and broke the support level on really large volume. The movement was strong and sharp. Also we need to point out the new resistance level 1.2893 – 1.2915, which contains quite large volume.

All these factors tell us that the downtrend for the USD/CAD continues and we should deliberate only short positions now.

volume cad

We can enter the market and open short positions after the continuation of the fall supported by increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance with a little margin. A potential of the deal is more than 100 pips.

sell cad

AUD/USD

We need to highlight the new volume level 0.7598 – 0.7612 that was created after the release of the payrolls. But the price is still trading in the consolidation, so it is difficult to predict further moves of the price. That’s why we need to wait for the reaction of the price on the volume level. Until that we should stay out of the market.

volume aud

XAU/USD

After trading in the consolidation, gold have finally broken down the support on Friday and continued falling. The movement was on large volume, that is a good signal for the continuation of the global downtrend. Moreover, we should highlight the new resistance 1214.60 – 1217.30 that contains really large volume which is the good place for a stop loss.

volume gold

Short positions can be opened after the beginning of the fall of the price on increased volume. The move can begin either from the current level or after the test of the level of resistance with further rebound down. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance level. The potential of the fall is more than 130 points.

sell gold

The sentiment: this indicator confirms our scenarios for the euro, the yen, the Canadian dollar and gold. For the pound and the Australian dollar situations are a bit confusing.

sentiment

The bottom line: there are a plenty of good scenarios for trading after the release of the payroll on Friday. In priority – USD/JPY, XAU/USD, USD/CAD. The euro also has interesting situation after the breakout of the resistance.