TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 05, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 05.07.2017

The AUDUSD is retracing some of the recent bearish move. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, all suggesting that the AUDUSD is down-trending and could continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified diagonal resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7600 and 0.7580.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today. An Australian Trade Balance figure will be announced at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 05.07.2017

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.8765-0.8790. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The EURGBP is also moving within a bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.

UK Services PMI will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 05.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has found support around 38.2% level and has since been bullish. Price is now ranging between horizontal levels at 1.1340-1.1375. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, buying opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may struggle to form a swing higher. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1400 and 1.1445.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 05.07.2017

Price has been finding support around the 38.2% Fib level and around the long-term trend support (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to retrace some of the recent bullish swing. Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price may struggle to form a swing higher. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2960 and 1.3030.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

UK Services PMI will be announced at 0830 UTC today. US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 05.07.2017

The NZDUSD continues to range within a horizontal channel at 0.7255-0.7345. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price recently moved below the identified bullish channel support area, signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt a move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous bullish channel support area and around the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 05.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed around the longer-term moving average and has moved lower. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could continue to downtrend. Shorting opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2960 and 1.3010, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the bearish moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the identified diagonal support.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 05.07.2017

Price continues to retrace and be bullish. The overall trend is down, suggesting that at some point, the USDCHF could attempt a bearish swing. Selling opportunities may exist around the 61.8% Fib level and around the trend resistance. The moving averages are bullish though and are widening, signalling that a bearish move may fail. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9595.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 05.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the previous swing high at 112.85. The USDJPY is now moving within a horizontal channel at 112.85-113.30. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the buying momentum may continue and that the USDJPY could move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 05.07.2017

GOLD is retracing some of the recent bearish swing but has stalled around the 23.6% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. If price continues to retrace, shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1241.10.