TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 04, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has moved below all key Fib levels and the moving averages. The moving averages are tightening and could cross bearish, suggesting that the AUDUSD may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified diagonal resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7615 and 0.7580.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear market direction. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the EURGBP is moving within the channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8725, 0.8760, 0.8805 and 0.8875.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
UK Construction PMI will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. The EURUSD continues to retrace some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that price could struggle to swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1280 and 1.1210. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1400 and 1.1445.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused great strength for the Euro.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price is retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are moving sideways and tightening and the GBPUSD has moved below both moving averages, all suggesting that buying momentum is weakening. Price may find support and attempt to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2830 and 1.2805. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2960 and 1.3030.
Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power. There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
UK Construction PMI will be released at 0830 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has moved below the bullish channel support area and has been bearish. Even though price has moved out of the bullish channel, the NZDUSD continues to range within a horizontal channel at 0.7255-0.7345. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Opportunities to go short may exist around the bullish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has moved above the recent range and is now retracing some of the recent sell-off. The moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the retracement may continue. The retracement could stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the previous range support and resistance levels at 1.2990 and 1.2960.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has continued to retrace. Price has moved above the moving averages and the 23.6% and 38.2% Fib levels. At some point, the USDCHF may reverse and attempt a bearish swing. Selling opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the previous swing low at 0.9685 and around the diagonal resistance area.
As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and was then bullish. The USDJPY is now retracing. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue and that price may continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous high and range resistance at 112.85, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 111.80.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has continued to be bearish and has moved lower. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. If price starts retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1241.10.
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