TriumphFX Daily Technical Forex Forecast 30.06.2017

EUR/USD

After the creation of the new and strong volume support level 1.1309 – 1.1329, EUR/USD resumed its growth and now the pair is going up. It is necessary to point out the presence of the confident uptrend, so there is no doubt that we should give a preference to long positions for the Euro.

Very often after such a growth a correction follows + the price has gone too far from the support (big stop loss), so we should open long positions after a smooth correction of the price to, approximately, the level 1.1380. A stop loss should be placed below the support level. A potential of the deal is 100 pips.

GBP/USD

The pound continued its growth and broke out the previous resistance. Unfortunately, the move was on medium volume and smooth, so we can’t trade the pound now. Also we need to point out the global support 1.2897 – 1.2910, that was created during the sharp growth of the price. It contains large volume, which makes it even more important.

The scenario for trading is similar to the euro one: we can enter the market after a correction of the price, because if we open long position from the current level, a stop loss will be very huge.

A correction should be smooth and on small volume. A stop loss should be place below the global support. A potential of the growth is around 100 pips.

USD/JPY

The yen showed a strong fall of the price that was supported by really large volume, so the continuation of the uptrend is under the question now. Also the support level 111.49 – 111.57 is still actual and is a cornerstone in trading this pair.

If the price breaks it down, we can enter the market and open short positions. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. The target is the level 110.35.

USD/CAD

The situation for USD/CAD remains the same: the price is going down and the downtrend continues. The resistance level 1.3079 – 1.3110 is still relevant. So our previous scenario remains the same – open short positions after the smooth correction of the price. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. A potential of the fall is more than 100 pips.

AUD/USD

We need to highlight the new support level for the Australian dollar. It’s 0.7663 – 0.7672. This level contains increased volume, so it can be used as a place for our stop loss.

Given the strong and confident uptrend, we should consider long positions, but after a smooth correction of the price to obtain a better entry point. A stop loss should be set below the level 0.7650. A potential of the growth is around 60 pips.

XAU/USD

Despite the fall of the US dollar against the other major currency pairs, gold showed a decline yesterday. The downward movement was quite sharp, but without large volume. As a consequence, the price tested the lower boundary of the consolidation and after the creation of the new support level 1239.90 – 1241.70, rebounded upwards. This level of support contains large volume, which only strengthens its importance.
Thus, gold continues trading in the consolidation between fresh support and technical resistance of 1253.90. It  also should be noted that there is a large accumulation of volume in this range.

Thus, we can trade this instrument only after the exit of the price from the consolidation. Therefore, we can point out 2 possible scenarios:
1. A resumption of the fall and a breakdown of the support level 1239.90 – 1241.70 on large volume. This will be an excellent signal for sales. A stop loss should be set above the volume breakout bar. The potential of the fall is about 150 pips.
2. If the price grows up and breaks out the resistance 1253.90 on increased volume, we can open long positions. A stop loss must be placed under the breakout volume bar. The target is 1278.00.

The sentiment:  this indicator confirms 4 our scenarios, which is a good sign for active trading. For the yen the situation is 50/50, but still the scenario for trading is pretty good. The sentiment for gold shows the advantage of the short positions, but we still need to wait for the exit of the price from the range.

The bottom line: all instruments have pretty good scenarios for trading in case of good entry points. Only gold is trading in the consolidation, so we should wait until the price breaks out its boundaries.

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