TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 27, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 27.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has stalled around the symmetrical triangle resistance area. Price continues to consolidate within the pattern. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear market direction – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the pattern and if the AUDUSD moves out of the pattern (break-out trade).  If price breaks to the upside, the AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7625. If price breaks to the downside, the AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7520.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1700 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 27.06.2017

The EURGBP has been finding support around the symmetrical triangle support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to move within the consolidation pattern and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance of the consolidation pattern and if the EURGBP moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). Price action has formed several horizontal support and resistance levels. The EURGBP could stall or reverse around any of these levels.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is a ECB Speech at 0800 UTC today. A Bank of England Financial Stability Report will be released at 0930 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1000 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 27.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area and continues to range within the horizontal channel at 1.1120-1.1210. Trading opportunities may exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The EURUSD has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all suggesting that price may break to the upside of the channel. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is an ECB Speech at 0800 UTC today. A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1700 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 27.06.2017

Price is ranging within 2 horizontal channels; a tighter channel at 1.2710-1.2755 and a wider channel at 1.2595-1.2805. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance of either ranges and if the GBPUSD moves out of either of the ranges (break-out trades). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price could move higher.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A Bank of England Financial Stability Report will be released at 0930 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1000 UTC. A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1700 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 27.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed bearish around the horizontal channel resistance area but has since returned to the resistance area. Price continues to move within the large horizontal channel at 0.7185-0.7315. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could move above the channel resistance. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1700 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 27.06.2017

The USDCAD continues to range the horizontal levels at 1.3200 and 1.3340. Price has been moving off the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCAD could stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.3430. If price breaks to the downside, the USDCAD may stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.3180.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1700 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 27.06.2017

Price is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide clear trading opportunities. The USDCHF may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9660, 0.9685 and 0.9760. If price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.9760, the USDCHF could attempt a bullish move higher.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1700 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 27.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the symmetrical triangle resistance area and has since been bullish. The USDJPY has also moved above the horizontal channel resistance and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 111.70, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the support and resistance areas of the recent symmetrical triangle.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A US Consumer Confidence figure is set to be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Speech at 1700 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 27.06.2017

GOLD has reversed around the horizontal support at 1241.50 (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has now formed a horizontal channel at 1241.50-1257.40 and GOLD is ranging within the channel. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).