TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 26, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 26.06.2017

Price stalled around the previous horizontal support at 0.7575 but has since moved above the resistance area. The AUDUSD continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance of the symmetrical triangle and if price moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). If the AUDUSD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7625. If the AUDUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7520.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the political uncertainties intensify.

A US Durable Goods Orders figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 26.06.2017

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). Price may stall or reverse around any of the identified horizontal levels.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is a ECB Speech at 1730 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 26.06.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD was bullish and has stalled around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price continues to range within the horizontal channel at 1.1120-1.1210. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.1280.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

A US Durable Goods Orders figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. There is an ECB Speech at 1730 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 26.06.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved above key Fib levels and the recent trend resistance area. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the GBPUSD may continue to be bullish. Buying opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal support at 1.2655. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.2805.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The Conservative government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A US Durable Goods Orders figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 26.06.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and is heading towards the range resistance area. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal levels at 0.7185 and 0.7315. The moving averages are bullish but have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the support and resistance of the recent symmetrical triangle.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A US Durable Goods Orders figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 26.06.2017

The USDCAD has reversed around the horizontal channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and continues to range between 1.3200-1.3340. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDCAD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.3425. If the USDCAD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.3180. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A US Durable Goods Orders figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 26.06.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the diagonal resistance area and the shorter-term moving average and has continued to be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.9660. If the USDCHF is bullish today, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9760.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify.

A US Durable Goods Orders figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 26.06.2017

Price has been moving off the symmetrical triangle consolidation support and resistance areas (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and continues to move with the consolidation pattern. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist once price closes out of the consolidation (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 111.75. If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 110.95.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

A US Durable Goods Orders figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 26.06.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has moved above the bearish channel resistance area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1247.15 and 1242.35. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1280.70.