Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 26-30.06.2017

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is still trading in the consolidation, moreover, trading volume has been very small for last week, so we are unable to highlight any new volume levels or zones. Yes, the price rapidly grew up on Friday, but this move was not supported by increased volume, so we should not consider it as a resumption of the global uptrend for the euro.

The only actual level that we should point out is the global resistance 1.1268 – 1.1279.

Given all facts above, we can regard the current situation for this currency pair as pretty complicated. That’s why we need to wait for appearance of large volume and liquidity on the market to be able to trade this instrument.

The only potentially good scenario for the euro is a strong bullish momentum and the continuation of the upward move, that was on Friday. This will be a good signal for opening long positions with a stop loss set below the impulse. The target is the resistance 1.1268 – 1.1279.

GBP/USD

The pound showed a pretty rapid growth at the end of last week, but overall the pair is still trading in the consolidation. The growth of the price was supported by increased volume which is a good sign for further move up.

Also we should highlight the new level of resistance 1.2738 which was created on Friday.

The scenario for trading GBP/USD is quite simple: after the confident breakout of the resistance and a fixation of the price above it we open long positions and wait for further growth of the price. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. The target is the level 1.2800.

USD/JPY

Like other majors, the yen is trading in the consolidation. We should notice that volume on the market was and is very small,  so we are unable to highlight nay volume levels or zones for this currency pair.

From the chart above we can point out the presence of the huge volume accumulation in this range which means that the breakout of the boundaries of the consolidation will be a good signal for the beginning of the local trend.

So the best decision will be just stay out of the market and wait for the exit of the price from the range.

USD/CAD

After a sharp fall of the price, USD/CAD showed a sharp growth on large volume and almost completely absorbed the previous price downward move. It is worth noting a new level of resistance 1.3280 – 1.3305, in which large volume is concentrated.
Also, support 1.3167 – 1.3191 remains relevant, so the price is locked between these two levels. Thus, it is worth considering 2 trading scenarios.

Purchases must be opened after a sharp breakdown of the resistance 1.3280 – 1.3305 on a large volume. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. The target is 1.3430.
Sales should be considered only after the confident breakdown of the support 1.3167 – 1.3191 and further continuation of the price fall. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 100 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is also locked in consolidation between 2 strong volume levels: support 0.7523 – 0.7540 and resistance 0.7629.

So, like the Canadian dollar, we have 2 scenarios for trading this instrument:
1. A continuation of the local downtrend and breakdown of support on large volume. In this case, it is worthwhile to open short positions with a stop loss placed just above the volume breakout bar. The potential of the deal is 60-70 points.
2. The resumption of the global uptrend and the breakdown of the resistance 0.7629 on increased volume. This will be an excellent signal for opening long positions. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 90 points.
Until the  consolidation breakdown, trading AUD/USD is not recommended.

XAU/USD

Gold could not breakout the resistance zone 1251.90 – 1256.00 and after the latest test, remained trading on it. This zone is the cornerstone for trading gold, its breakout will mean the continuation of last week’s growth.

The scenario for trading gold is follow: we need to get an additional signal – strong bullish momentum – to be sure that this resistance is broken. After the fixation of the price above it we can open long positions. A stop loss should be placed below the beginning of the strong growth. The target is the level 1278.80.

The bottom line: the best situations for trading are for the pound and gold. USD/CAD and AUD/USD are also pretty interesting currency pairs for trading, but we need to wait for breakouts of consolidations. As for the euro, we should wait for the appearance of large volume on the market.

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