Daily Technical Forex Forecast 23.06.2017

EUR/USD

The situation for EUR/USD is pretty complicated as the pair is still trading in the consolidation. The price moves smoothly and on very small volume, so we can’t highlight any volume levels or zones.

In such case it is very difficult to predict further behavior of the instrument. We just need to wait for the exit of the price from the range, preferably, on large volume and the beginning of the trend. Until that it’s better to stay out of the market.

GBP/USD

According to the British pound sterling, the situation remains the same: the price is in a small local consolidation at a resistance level 1.2680 – 1.2700. This level is the cornerstone of GBP/USD trading, as it contains very large volume that stopped the price growth.
Also it is worth noting that the price movement up and the test of the level is on very small level, which only puzzles the situation for trading.

Thus, in order to enter the market, we need to wait for a strong reaction of the price on the resistance level 1.2680 – 1.2700, with which it is possible to trade in both directions.

1. If the price breaks the resistance level on large (!) volume, it is worth considering the scenario with the opening of long positions. A stop loss must be placed under the volume breakout bar. The target is 1.2800. In case of a breakdown of the level without volume, it is better to stay out of the market, because the probability of a false breakdown will be very high.
2. If, after the test of the level, the price bounces abruptly down on large volume, then we can consider sales. A stop loss should be placed a little above the test. The fall potential is about 120 points.

USD/JPY

The yen is trading in the consolidation too, so we need to get an additional signal to be able to trade this instrument. Given the uptrend for it, we need to wait for the continuation of the growth on really large volume. A stop loss should be placed below the level 100.70 or the beginning of the sharp growth (riskier). The main target is 112.00.

If the price continues trading in the consolidation, we should stay out of the market.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is also trading in the consolidation. The price fell down sharply yesterday and is trading near the lower boundary of the consolidation, so we can consider the scenario of its breakdown.

The move should be on increased volume and abrupt. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the fall is more then 100 pips.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed an upward correction of the price during the Asian session today, but the growth was on small volume. That’s why it does not mean too much. The overall picture remains the same – the pair is going down, but there is no good situation for trading, because the price moves on small volume, so we don’t have a good place for a stop loss.

We should wait for the breakdown of the support 0.7523 on increased volume, which will open a further road down for us. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 60-70 pips.

XAU/USD

After the test of the resistance zone 1251.90 – 1256.00, gold is trading below it. This level contains really huge volume and is the cornerstone of trading this instrument.

Also we need to notice the presence of the downtrend for gold. This fact makes short positions more priority scenario.

We can enter the market after the strong rebound of the price from the resistance on large volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level. A potential of the fall is around 130-140 pips.

As for long positions, they can be considered only in the case of the abrupt breakout of the resistance on very large volume. Moreover, it’s more like intraday deal.

The sentiment: this indicator is very difficult to use now as almost all instrument are trading in consolidations. We need to wait for beginnings of trends and then we can use it for analyzing the market.

The bottom line: the whole situation on the market is very complicated, because there is low liquidity and volatility. Almost all pairs are trading in ranges, so we should be extremely careful today.

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