After the strong fall of the price due to the rate hike on Wednesday, EUR/USD corrected up on Friday. The move was on medium volume, so we shouldn’t consider it as a reversal signal.
Also we need to highlight the most important level for the euro, it’s the resistance 1.1268 – 1.1279 which contains really large volume. This level is crucial for long positions: until the price breaks it out, we can’t deliberate purchases at all.
So given the strong fall of the price last week and the presence of the resistance, we should look for entry point of short positions.
We can enter the market after the resumption of the fall and the breakdown of the local minimum 1.1140. The move should be supported by increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 pips.
The situation for GBP/USD is pretty complicated as the pair is trading in the consolidation and moves almost without volume. So we are unable to highlight any volume levels or zones at the moment. The best decision will be just to stay out of the market until the trend begin, especially, supported by large volume.
Abrupt growth of the price was changed by a downward correction on Friday. The fall of the price was quite abrupt, but on medium volume. So it seems like a technical correction after the strong and fast growth of the pair.
Also we need to point out the new support 110.70 that contains increased volume and stopped the fall of the price.
So our previous scenario remains the same, but we need to see an additional signal to be able to open long positions. Such a signal is a resumption of the growth on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed below either the level 110.50 or the daily minimum. The main target is 112.00.
The pair USD/CAD continued its fall and is trading near its local minimum/support level 1.3167 – 1.3190 now. In this level, fairly large volume is concentrated, after which the correction of the price up began.
Thus, we can open shorts after a confident breakdown of this mark on increased volume with a fixation of the price below it. A stop loss should be placed just above the beginning of the breakout movement. The potential of the fall is 100-110 points.
The Australian dollar continues trading in the local consolidation under the resistance level 0.7629, in which large volume is concentrated that has stopped the price growth.
It should also be noted the presence of a strong uptrend for the pair AUD/USD, so long positions should be in priority.
We can open purchases only after a sure breakdown of the resistance level 0.7629 on large volume with a further fixation of the price above it. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The first goal is 50 points, the second one is 100.
Gold showed a strong fall last week and is trading near the local support 1251.90. This level contains pretty large volume + it is the lower boundary of the consolidation. The price did not rebound up sharply from it, so we should trade the breakout of it.
Besides it we should highlight the presence of the local downtrend. So all factors confirms the scenario of opening short positions for gold.
We can enter the market and open short positions after a strong and sharp breakdown of the level 1251.90. The move should be supported by large volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. A potential of the fall is more than 100 pips.
The bottom line: the best situations for trading are for AUD/USD and XAU/USD. As for USD/JPY and USD/CAD, these pairs also can be interesting for trading if additional signals appear.