Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 16, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 16.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the swing high at 0.7625. As also suggested, the AUDUSD has since been finding support around the previous horizontal channel resistance and trend support area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7565 and 0.7520. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7625.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US Building Permits data will be announced at 1230 UTC today. There will be a Reserve Bank of Australia Speech just after markets re-open on Sunday, at 2330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 16.06.2017

Price has moved below the horizontal support at 0.8765 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to look choppy and indecisive, though price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, all suggesting that the EURGBP could continue to be bearish. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.8765, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.8650.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union. The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is no major news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 16.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has moved below the range support area and has since moved lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are starting to widen, signalling that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous range support at 1.1165/70 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

US Building Permits data will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 16.06.2017

The GBPUSD continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1.2640-1.2805. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Price action has also formed a tightening triangular pattern and the GBPUSD is also consolidating within this pattern also. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either the consolidation patterns (break-out trade).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started preparing negotiations for leaving the European Union.  The British government has lost some parliamentary seats and has had to form a minority government to stay in power.  There is concern that this decision may create more political and economic uncertainty for the UK. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down but the Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US Building Permits data will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 16.06.2017

Price is looking indecisive and is lacking market direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7170 and 0.7315, around the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. If the NZDUSD moves below the horizontal support at 0.7170, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US Building Permits data will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 16.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the identified horizontal resistance at 1.3250 and has since been bullish. The USDCAD has formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern and the moving averages are tightening and becoming more bullish, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move and continue to retrace the recent sell-off. Long opportunities could exist around the horizontal level at 1.3250 and around the shorter-term moving average. Price may stall or reverse around any of the identified horizontal levels.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The recent sell-off in the OIL market has caused some Canadian Dollar weakness. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US Building Permits data will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 16.06.2017

The USDCHF moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and lows and has also formed a bullish channel. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9725, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. The USDCHF may stall or reverse around channel resistance area.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies.

US Building Permits data will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 16.06.2017

Just like many currency pairs, the USDJPY has moved out of a recent range/horizontal channel and has been moving in favour of the break-out (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are starting to widen, suggesting that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous range resistance at 110.70, around the horizontal level at 110.30 and around the moving averages.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensifies. As expected, the US Federal Reserve rate has increased to 1.25%. Another rate hike is expected by the end of the calendar year. If political uncertainties continue in the US, there could be some weakness in the US Dollar, especially if the uncertainties intensify.

US Building Permits data will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 16.06.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the clear horizontal support at 1260.00 and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that GOLD could start down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 1260.00 (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. GOLD may stall or reverse around the channel support area.