Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 05-09.06


EUR/USD

The euro broke out the previous level of resistance and is trading above it now. The move was sharp and on really large volume, caused by negative labor market data.

Also we need to highlight the new support zone 1.1264 – 1.1279 that contains large volume. Besides it the uptrend for the euro remains actual.

volume euro

Given all these factors we should consider only long positions for the euro. We can enter the market after either a continuation of the growth or the test of the support and strong rebound of the price from it. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1.1264. A potential of the growth is around 90 pips.

buy euro

GBP/USD

Despite the bad payrolls, GBP/USD remained trading in the consolidation between two volume levels: the support 1.2783 – 1.2792 and the resistance 1.2899 – 1.2913. There is the huge accumulation of volume inside this range, so its breakout will be an excellent signal for opening deals.

volume gbp

Given the weakened US dollar and the location of the price near the resistance, its breakout seems the most possible scenario now. The move should be confident and abrupt. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar.  The target is 1.3040.

buy gbp

USD/JPY

The poor payrolls caused a strong fall of USD/JPY on huge volume. Also we need to point out the new resistance level 110.35 which contains large volume. The price is trading a bit lower this level.

volume jpy

So after the breakout of the support it will be a great signal for opening short positions for the yen. The breakout movement should be on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level 110.60. A potential of the fall is around 110-120 pips.

sell jpy

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continues trading in the consolidation 1.3477 – 1.3524. In this range, large volume is concentrated, which only strengthens its value.
Also it is worth noting the fall of the pair USD/CAD on increased volume on Friday.

volume cad

Given the weakening of the US dollar and the strong price movement down, it is worth considering the option with sales after the breakdown of the lower boundary of the consolidation. A movement should be sharp and on increased volume. A stop loss is worth placing for a breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is about 90-100 points.

sell cad

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth amid weakening of the US dollar due to poor data on the labor market. Two volume support levels were formed: 0.7407 – 0.7418 and 0.7430 – 0.7435. Both levels contain large volume.

volume aud

These 2 marks are cornerstones for trading AUD/USD. After the test and rebound from these levels, we can open purchases. A stop loss should be placed slightly lower than the tested support. The potential of the deal is about 70 points.

buy aud

XAU/USD

The price of gold showed a strong reaction on the bad payroll and grew up strongly. The pair broke out the previous resistance and created the new level of support 1274.10 – 1277.00. This level contains really large volume + the price was fixed above it.

Also the global uptrend for gold is still actual.

volume gold

Given all these facts we can open long positions from this volume level. We can enter the market after either the continuation of the growth or the test of the support and a strong rebound of the price from it. A stop loss should be placed below the level 1274.10. A potential of the deal is around 130-140 pips.

buy gold

The sentiment: all our deals except USD/CAD and AUD/USD, where the situation is near 50/50, are confirmed by the mood of the market.

sentiment

The bottom line: best scenarios for trading are for the euro, the yen and gold. The pound is also can be interesting if the price breaks out the consolidation.