The euro continues trading in the consolidation below the level of resistance 1.1231 – 1.1243. The rebound of the price on Thursday was smooth and on medium volume, so we can consider it as some kind of technical correction after a strong growth.
Also we need to highlight a huge accumulation of volume in the range, so the exit of the price from it will be a great opportunity for trading.
Given the uptrend and the latest sharp growth of the price, we should give preference to long positions. We can enter the market after a confident breakout of the resistance and a fixation of the price above it. A stop loss should be placed below the beginning of the breakout move. A potential of the growth is around 80 pips.
The pound is currently trading in the consolidation between two levels: support 1.2783 – 1.2792, after the test of which the price grew on large volume, and resistance 1.2899 – 1.2913, where large volume is concentrated, that stopped the price growth. In addition, on Thursday, the price tested resistance and remained trading in the local range, which increases its value for trading this instrument.
Given the strong price growth after the test of the support and the overall picture on the market, it is worth giving preference to long positions for the pair GBP/USD.
We can open longs after the confident breakdown of the level 1.2899 – 1.2913 on large volume with the subsequent fixation of the price above it. A stop loss should be placed just below the beginning of the breakout movement. The target is 1.3040. The risk/profit ratio is, minimum, 1 to 2.
The yen showed a strong correction and now it is trading near the resistance level and the higher boundary of the consolidation 111.66 – 111.83. If the price breaks it out, especially on large volume, we can search for the entry point for long positions. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. The target is 113.00.
If the yen continues trading in the consolidation, then we should stay out of the market.
The Canadian dollar is still trading in the consolidation inside its level of resistance 1.3498 – 1.3520. It means that our previous scenario remains the same: after the breakout of the level we can open long positions with a stop loss set below this consolidation. The target is 1.3602.
Also watch for the oil price, if it continues growing, be extremely careful while trading USD/CAD.
As predicted, the price continued falling, but unfortunately we don’t have a good situation for trading both then and now. The potential of the fall is small and there is no a good place for putting stop losses.
So that, I advise you to stay out of the market for AUD/USD today.
The price showed the downward correction and is trading in the consolidation now. So we can trade gold only after the breakout of the boundaries of the range. But given the uptrend and the fact that the price fell down on small volume we should consider opening long positions.
Also we need to highlight the level of resistance 1271.40 – 1273.60 which is the local maximum as well. It is the cornerstone of trading gold.
We can open long positions only after the strong breakout of the consolidation on large volume. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the growth is around 150 pips.
Today this scenario is difficult to be happened, because the price is too far away, but it is the only possible trading plan. Because we should not trade against the uptrend.
So overall, it is better to stay out of the market for gold.
The sentiment: the euro and the pound scenarios are confirmed. For USD/JPY and USD/CAD the sentiment is balanced, almost 50/50. For AUD/USD short positions are in priority, whereas for gold long positions are preferable.
The bottom line: the euro and the pound deals are in priority. Also watch for the yen, if it breaks out the resistance, it also can be interesting instrument for trading.