Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 19, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 19.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been up-trending within a bullish channel and has found support around the bullish channel support area. Price struggled to reach the bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages are tight, both suggesting that the AUDUSD may move below the channel support area. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 0.7390. If price moves below the channel support area, the AUDUSD may attempt a bearish move. If the channel does hold, price may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 19.05.2017

The EURGBP has reversed the recent retracement and is now looking a bit indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between horizontal levels at 0.8525 and 0.8610. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 19.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has retraced some of the recent bullish move and has found support around the 23.6% Fib level. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, signalling that the EURUSD may attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. Price may stall or reverse around any of the identified horizontal levels.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 19.05.2017

Price broke to the upside of the recent range but quickly reversed the bullish move. The GBPUSD has since found support around the previous symmetrical triangle resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look indecisive but the moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the GBPUSD may move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous symmetrical triangle resistance area and around the identified diagonal support area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 19.05.2017

The NZDUSD is looking choppy and indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.6820-0.6945. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous diagonal support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 19.05.2017

Just like many currency pairs, the USDCAD is indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3575-1.3665 and the USDCAD is ranging within the channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The USDCAD is also moving within a bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area. If price moves lower in today’s trading sessions, the USDCAD may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.

Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 19.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price struggled to move any lower and retraced a little. The USDCHF has now become indecisive (like many currency pairs) and is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9760 and 0.9810. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance levels and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the USDCHF could break to the downside and continue to downtrend. If the USDCHF breaks to the upside, selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around any of the key Fib levels.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 19.05.2015

Price has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt a bearish move and continue to downtrend. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 112.20. If price is bearish, the USDCHF may stall or reverse around the previous swing low at 110.35.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. US political uncertainties continue. These events may cause weakness in the US Dollar, especially if they intensify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 19.05.2017

GOLD has been retracing some of the recent bullish swing but continues to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and are widening. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1236.30.