Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 16, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 16.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has started up-trending. The AUDUSD has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, all suggesting that price may continue to move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US Building Permits data will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 16.05.2017

The EURGBP failed in it’s attempt to move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has moved above the bearish channel resistance area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is looking over-extended though, suggesting that the EURGBP is due a retracement. If price does start retracing, buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8490 and 0.8485, around the previous channel resistance (as support) and around the moving averages.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 16.05.2017

Price continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and providing no clear market direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.0850 and 1.1015.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

US Building Permits data will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 16.05.2017

The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1.2850-1.2985 and within a symmetrical triangle. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel and symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The Bank of England recently kept rates at 0.25% and announced that wage growth is stagnant while inflation is increasing, causing some concerns for the UK economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. This will be followed by US Building Permits data at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 16.05.2017

Just like many USD pairs, the NZDUSD is looking choppy but price is moving within a bearish channel and is slowly down-trending. The NZDUSD is currently retracing and heading towards the bearish channel resistance area. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6945. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US Building Permits data will be released at 1230 UTC today. A New Zealand GDT Price Index figure will be announced around 1345-1415 UTC. This is followed by a New Zealand PPI Input at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 16.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the previous range support area and has continued to move lower. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the USDCAD may continue to downtrend within the bearish channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous range support at 1.3645, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. The USDCAD may stall or reverse around the channel support area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US Building Permits data will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 16.05.2017

Price has been very bearish and is moving lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the bearish run may continue. If the USDCHF pulls-back in today’s trading sessions, shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.

US Building Permits data will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 16.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been finding support around the identified trend support area and has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. Price continues to be indecisive (just like many USD pairs). From a technical view, there is no clear current direction. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 113.00. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal resistance at 114.35.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US Building Permits data will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 16.05.2017

GOLD continues to move within the bullish channel but has been rejected around the horizontal resistance at 1236.25(as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. If price moves below the channel support area, GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1236.25 and around the channel resistance area.